Gaslamp Quarter Historic District California Weather Forecast Discussion

511
FXUS66 KSGX 082107
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
207 PM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system off the West Coast will draw tropical
moisture from Priscilla northward into the area for Thursday into
Friday night with increasing chances for showers and a chance for
thunderstorms. Cooler with drying for Saturday through Monday.
For Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a low pressure system
moving to near the West Coast will bring a chance of showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Tonight through Friday...
Low clouds will continue to fill back in by later this evening along
the coast and then advance inland ahead of the approaching trough,
and remnants of Priscilla moving up over the area. Some of the mid
level clouds from the tropical system to our south will begin to
make their way up over the region by early in the morning tomorrow.
The latest track of Priscilla has remained similar to previous
models, which shows that a majority of the moisture streaming up
over the area from tomorrow through Friday to be located over San
Diego County. For this reason, the mountains of San Diego will
likely have the best chance of thunderstorms developing overhead
during the afternoon. Otherwise, it will just likely be on and off
showers falling from a relatively high based mid-level scattered to
broken cloud deck for most of the areas tomorrow, with most of the
coastal and inland areas likely receiving between 0.01-0.10" through
Saturday. PWAT values are still pushing 200, so if a storm does
develop, it could put down a heavy amount of rain in a short period
of time, of possibly a half an inch or greater per hour. Having said
this, it doesn`t appear that the system is well organized, which
could indicate that it is undergoing much weakening and may not have
as much moisture associated with it as the remnants make their way
over the region. Given the higher PWATs, if there is a stronger
shower or possible storm the develops and remains nearly stationary,
it could cause some flash flooding problems, which is especially the
case for Friday afternoon as the depression moves closer to the CWA,
with an increase of instability.  By Saturday morning, the system
will begin to pull away from the area and there will only be a
slight chance of thunderstorms for the mountains and deserts.
Temperatures will also increase a  bit, and moisture increasing will
keep temperatures quite a bit more modified and warmer over
Saturday through the mid half of next week...
The longwave trough with an area of low pressure upstream will
continue to approach the region, and the tightening of the pressure
gradient at the surface will cause winds to increase and become
rather strong and gusty on Saturday for the high deserts, and areas
prone to stronger winds due to gap flow. This will also allow for
temperatures to begin to cool off, and this will continue going into
the early part of next week, with the chance of rain as a series of
troughs will bring about a chance of precipitation and also keep
temperatures on the cooler side through the mid part of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
082000Z....Coasts/Valleys...SKC area-wide this afternoon. Areas of
low clouds with bases around 1200-1800 feet MSL will gradually
redevelop and spread inland starting 01-03Z Thu. Less uniform
coverage than this morning and mostly confined to San Diego County.
Patchy coverage of low clouds possible elsewhere 12-16Z Thu. Any low
clouds scattering out again by 15-17Z Thu as showers begin to push
in from the south.
Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear and VFR conditions through tomorrow
morning. High clouds and scattered -SHRA moving in from the
south after 12Z Thu. Slight chance (15-25%) TSRA after 21Z Thu.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest wind gusts around 20 kt near San Clemente Island each
afternoon/evening Thu through Sat. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. Lightning, erratic winds,
choppy seas, and/or reduced visibility in heavy rain likely in
vicinity of any thunderstorms.
&&
.BEACHES...
There is a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms producing lightning
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Stewey
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW

NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion