Gavilan, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS65 KABQ 222353 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
553 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move quickly east
  across eastern New Mexico this evening. Wind gusts may exceed 50
  mph along with brief heavy rainfall.
- A backdoor cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to
  northeast New Mexico Tuesday then to all of eastern New Mexico
  on Wednesday. North wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible over
  eastern NM Tuesday night. Canyon winds may gust to between 25 and
  35 mph on the east side of Albuquerque late Tuesday night.
- We have increasing forecast confidence that a Pacific system
  will approach from the west toward the end of the work week,
  bringing improved chances for showers and storms from Friday
  through the weekend. This scenario would lead to an increasing
  risk for burn scar flash flooding going into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
New Mexico will find itself pinched between two surrounding upper
level low pressure systems, one which is currently digging into the
central Rockies, and another which is churning over the Pacific off
the coast of Southern California. The low off of SoCal is helping
pump in some moisture rich southwesterly flow into the Desert
Southwest this afternoon, currently producing scattered showers and
dense cloud cover over northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico.
The ABQ 18z upper air sounding is showing that PWATs have climbed up
to 0.91 inches this afternoon, within the 90th percentile for this
time of year. Forcing and instability for storms is quite weak
throughout the region, which is why most shower activity is focusing
along an area of west-central and northwestern New Mexico where the
upper level subtropical jet is providing some useful ascent. With
stronger flow aloft, there will be quite a bit of speed shear
available for storms (about 40 kts of bulk shear), but most of it
will be zonal and with little directional change. There is a
marginal risk of severe weather over most of central New Mexico and
parts of western and eastern areas as well. The main threat will be
strong wind gusts from storms that look to develop along a
convectively aided boundary moving east through New Mexico. The
severe threat seems to be conditional on how unstable the atmosphere
will be able to get. CAPE values are unfavorable over most areas,
with values of about 500 J/kg or less. However, RAP analysis
indicates that sunny conditions along south-central areas may allow
for enough heating to create 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE to establish
itself before the boundary reaches Socorro county. As a result,
Socorro and Valencia county are the areas of highest confidence to
see strong to severe wind gusts. Storms will be moving pretty
quickly east and can produce a quick quarter to half inch of
rainfall, but little to no flooding impacts are expected.
Overnight, a backdoor cold front will being to push south through
northeastern New Mexico, creating breezy condtions throughout the
plains and dropping temperatures to below average for this time of
year. Guidance is also showing a signal for low clouds to develop
along the Colorado border near Raton Pass, where lowered visibility
may create hazardous driving conditions in the early morning hours
on Tuesday. Northeastern areas will also be the main location for
showers and storms on Tuesday afternoon. As the main trough axis
from the low over the central Rockies crosses the region, a second
stronger push of the backdoor front will swing through the eastern
plains. Meanwhile, drier northwesterly air will begin to seep south
through northwestern New Mexico, creating a sharp moisture gradient
across the state. As a result, storm chances will focus mainly along
and east of the central mountain chain, where there is better
moisture and forcing from the backdoor front. The front looks to
reach the gaps of the Sandia-Manzanos by late Tuesday night, pushing
through a brisk gap wind for the Albuquerque metro. Parts of the
eastern plains may see 30 kt wind gusts during the evening and low
clouds developing over the early morning hours on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Drier mid and upper level northwesterly flow over New Mexico looks
to greatly decrease PoPs throughout the region on Wednesday.
Precipitable water content will sink into 0.4 to 0.5 range, below
average for this time of year. Perhaps a light shower or two may
develop over the Gila, where orographic forcing may be able to
squeeze out some rain from the limited moisture available in
southern areas. In the wake of the backdoor cold front, high
temperatures for wednesday will be about 10 degrees below average
for this time of year for areas east of the central mountain chain.
A sort of Omega block develops over the intermountain west as the
Pacific low begins to encroach on the California coast and troughing
continues to dig east over the Mississippi river valley. As a result
of this slight ridging over New Mexico, stable and mostly dry
conditions will remain on Thursday for the majority of the region.
Some southerly flow begins to bring moisture back over southwestern
areas, where an isolated storm may develop during the afternoon.
Heading into the end of the week, increased moisture looks to surge
back into the Desert Southwest as the SoCal low beings to steer in
some moisture rich southerly flow from the Pacific. There is still
some uncertainty regarding the timing of this system as it moves
from California into New Mexico, but chances for precipitation
increase areawide through the weekend. PWATs look to climb to near
an inch on Sunday, well above average for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Showers and thunderstorm will continue to track quickly eastward
across eastern NM this evening, but should generally diminish or
weaken by 03-04Z. Gusty winds to 40kt, small hail and brief heavy
rainfall will be associated with these storms. Overnight, IFR to
MVFR cigs will develop near the CO border across northeast NM. A
weak boundary will push through eastern NM Tuesday morning, but a
stronger front will enter northeast NM just prior to 00Z Wed and
showers and thunderstorms should erupt along it. Isolated to
scattered storms will also develop over the southern high terrain
Tuesday afternoon. Storms will be capable of gusty winds and
brief downpours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum through the next
several days. Increased moisture today and tomorrow will lead to
scattered thunderstorms throughout the region. Strong to severe
storms in central New Mexico may produce locally heavy rainfall
and frequent lightning. Strong wind gusts are the main severe
weather concern this afternoon. A backdoor cold front will
initially push through eastern areas tonight, with a second
stronger push tomorrow night with winds of 20 to 30 kts. Drier
northwesterly air during the middle of the week will lower chances
of precipitation throughout the region. Wetter conditions look to
return towards the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  74  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  38  72  34  75 /  10  20   5  10
Cuba............................  45  72  41  71 /  20  10   5  10
Gallup..........................  45  76  40  78 /  20   0   0   5
El Morro........................  47  74  43  76 /  30  10   0  10
Grants..........................  46  77  42  77 /  30  10   5  10
Quemado.........................  48  76  45  79 /  20  20   0  20
Magdalena.......................  53  76  50  73 /  30  40  10  20
Datil...........................  48  75  46  75 /  30  40  10  30
Reserve.........................  50  84  48  83 /  20  20   0  20
Glenwood........................  55  89  55  88 /  10  20   0  20
Chama...........................  38  66  35  69 /  20  30  10  10
Los Alamos......................  50  72  46  70 /  20  10  10  10
Pecos...........................  47  73  43  68 /  20  20  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  41  68  39  67 /  20  40  30  10
Red River.......................  38  59  32  58 /  20  50  30  20
Angel Fire......................  33  63  26  62 /  10  40  30  20
Taos............................  41  72  38  71 /  10  30  20  10
Mora............................  46  69  39  64 /  20  30  30  20
Espanola........................  48  78  45  76 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  50  74  46  70 /  20  10  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  47  77  44  73 /  20  10  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  80  55  75 /  20  10  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  82  53  77 /  20  10  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  84  51  78 /  20   5  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  82  53  77 /  20   5  10   5
Belen...........................  54  84  51  78 /  20  10  10   5
Bernalillo......................  54  83  51  78 /  20   5  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  53  84  48  78 /  20  10  10   5
Corrales........................  55  84  51  78 /  20   5  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  54  84  51  78 /  20   5  10   5
Placitas........................  54  78  50  74 /  20  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  55  82  52  77 /  20   5  10   5
Socorro.........................  58  86  56  80 /  20  30  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  75  46  71 /  20  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  52  76  48  72 /  20  10  10  10
Edgewood........................  47  77  45  72 /  20  10  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  79  44  72 /  20  10  20  10
Clines Corners..................  48  73  44  65 /  20  10  30  10
Mountainair.....................  50  77  46  71 /  20  20  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  50  78  48  70 /  30  20  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  57  82  54  74 /  40  30  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  54  75  49  65 /  40  30  50  40
Capulin.........................  46  64  41  61 /  30  40  60  10
Raton...........................  48  68  42  65 /  20  50  50  10
Springer........................  46  73  44  68 /  20  30  40  10
Las Vegas.......................  46  72  42  65 /  20  20  40  20
Clayton.........................  54  73  50  68 /  20  20  50  10
Roy.............................  51  74  47  67 /  30  30  50  10
Conchas.........................  56  81  53  74 /  30  20  50  10
Santa Rosa......................  56  79  52  71 /  30  20  50  10
Tucumcari.......................  57  79  50  71 /  30  10  40  10
Clovis..........................  60  84  55  75 /  30  10  50  10
Portales........................  60  85  56  75 /  30  10  50  20
Fort Sumner.....................  58  83  55  75 /  40  10  40  10
Roswell.........................  63  88  60  77 /  30  10  50  20
Picacho.........................  58  83  55  72 /  30  30  40  30
Elk.............................  56  81  51  69 /  20  30  30  30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...34

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion