Gay, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

663
FXUS61 KRLX 082339
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
739 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure maintains control over the area through much of
the week, yielding a stretch of dry weather amid gradually
warming temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Monday...
Forecast remains largely on track with quiet weather and some
river valley fog expected overnight. No updates needed.
As of 120 PM Monday...
Upper level troughing remains in place over the area with surface
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. This will continue to
provide dry conditions with light winds this afternoon.
Tonight, with clear skies and light winds, strong radiational
cooling is expected. Low temperatures are forecast to fall into
the upper 40s in the Metro Valley and southern coalfields, with
lower 40s for much of the rest of the area. Some areas subject
to cold air drainage away from major rivers, particularly in the
mountains of West Virginia, could dip into the middle to upper
30s. This will create a potential for very patchy frost
formation in these colder spots, though coverage is expected to
be too limited for any headlines at this time.
The combination of remnant soil moisture from rainfall last week,
light winds, and clear skies will also be conducive for the
development of valley fog overnight. The fog could become dense
in some of the river valleys and could impact early morning
travel.
High temperatures on Tuesday will climb into the upper 70s to
low 80s. Continued drying of soils from recent rainfall coupled
with afternoon mixing into very dry air at the top of the
boundary layer should allow afternoon RH values across the lower
elevations to fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s, but with
recent rainfall fire concerns, even in unsheltered fine fuels,
will remain somewhat tame.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Monday...
The east coast upper trough amplifies through the middle of the
week with the center of surface high pressure gradually shifting
eastward. Overall, minimal impact to sensible weather aside from
a gradual warming trend.
High temperatures on Wednesday across the lower elevations will
reach the lower to mid 80s by Wednesday, which is near to
slightly above normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will
also moderate, with most locations seeing lows in the low to
mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to build across the central
United States and begin encroaching on the Middle Ohio Valley
during the long term period. This will sustain the dry and quiet
weather pattern through the weekend. Temperatures will warm to
above normal levels, with daytime highs consistently in the mid
80s for most of the area. There are some indications that a weak
frontal system could approach the region late Sunday or early
Monday, but confidence in any precipitation remains low at this
time.
With the lack of precipitation through the period, still quite
high mid-September Sun angle, and afternoon RH values dipping
into the upper 20s/mid 30s each day, fine fuels will
progressively dry through the end of the week. Sheltered fuels
will be slower to respond with trees still in full leaf, but
fine fuels will become increasingly receptive to fire.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM Monday...
Overall, VFR conditions should prevail the bulk of the time
across the region this TAF period. Some valley fog will develop
again tonight, but likely be a bit less extensive in time and
area as compared to last night. Confidence is highest for IFR
conditions to develop at KEKN, with periods of MVFR or IFR
possible at KCRW and KPKB as well. Can`t rule out fog at CKB,
but confidence wasn`t as high there, so just went with a VCFG
mention. The fog should dissipate by 13-14Z Tuesday, with VFR
conditions returning for the remainder of the day. Light or calm
winds overnight will become gentle breezes during the day
tomorrow, mainly from the east and southeast.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of valley fog may vary
overnight tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                                            TUE 09/09/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in patchy early morning valley fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK/JP
NEAR TERM...FK/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...FK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion