Gem Lake, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

784
FXUS63 KMPX 051932
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
232 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool temperatures continue through this weekend. Patchy frost
  possible Saturday night.
- Temperatures rebound into the 70s early next week.
- Scattered showers and storms return to the forecast on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Conditions will dry out but continue to hold onto your hats. Breezy
winds are expected to range between 20 to 30 mph this afternoon
before diminishing this evening. Mid-level water vapor currently
shows the apex of a broad trough moving into the central Great Lakes
region. On this trough`s western periphery, a wave is currently
moving into central SD. As the parent trough moves eastward, the SD
wave could generate a few isolated showers across southwestern MN
this afternoon. Otherwise the best chances of precip are expected to
stay pinned into northeastern MN and northern WI. Although an
isolated shower could stray into areas north and east of the I-94
corridor. Forecasted lows tonight will range mostly near 40 degrees.
With this fall like weather, this weekend might be a good one to
head out to the apple orchard or enjoy an evening by a bonfire!
Another round of widely scattered showers will be possible once
again as another wave tries to force itself southward NE`rn WI
Saturday afternoon/evening. Good news is no wash outs are expected
but wouldn`t hurt to plan for a brief shower or two.
Temperatures will range in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.
The colder night looks to be Saturday night into Sunday morning
where many areas could see the upper 30s before sunrise. Skies
will be on the clearer side with light winds which could allow
for patchy frost. No widespread freezes are expected but, if
you have sensitive plants it may not hurt to cover them up that
night. Surface high pressure moves in Sunday allowing for mostly
sunny conditions.
Monday, surface high pressure will depart into the Ohio Valley. A
mid-level shortwave will move into the north-central plains which
returns southerly flow into the northern plains. The advection of
warmer air will help temperatures reach the low to mid 70s.
Additionally, warm advection showers and thunderstorms are
forecast Monday afternoon into the evening. A cold front will
trail in tow of this wave late Tuesday. NBM continues to
indicate this as progressive passage however Td`s lingering in
the lower 60s will support increased instability and potentially
expanding the window of seeing showers/storms. Midlevel ridging
arrives by midweek which will briefly quiet things down before
the next round of precip approaches late week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR. Bkn with filtered periods of sct cigs will continue to
hover between 3000 to 5000 feet through much of this period.
Gusty W/NW`ly 20-30kt winds will linger through this afternoon
before becoming light overnight. Isolated -SHRA is possible
tomorrow but was too reluctant to pinpoint impacts to any one
location. Any -SHRA that develops is expected to be brief.
KMSP...Gusty NW winds will persist through the rest of this
afternoon before falling below 10kts this evening by 02z. Low VFR
bkn cigs will linger through the entire period with only slight
improvement in cig height by tomorrow morning. Breezy wind gusts
near 18kts tomorrow afternoon. Iso to sct -SHRA will be possible
throughout tomorrow afternoon but lacked confidence to include any
mentions of TEMPOs during this issuance.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA. Wind S 10-15G20 kts.
TUE...VFR/MVFR AM -SHRA poss. Wind S 10-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dunleavy

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion