Gilchrist County Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS62 KJAX 141403
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1003 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Highest impacts:
  St. Johns River Basin south of Duval County. Increasing water
  levels again mid-week
- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches
- Small Craft Advisory Returns Wednesday Outer Waters
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Fog this morning has dissipated quickly under clearing skies. A
deep northerly flow today with generally dry conditions will
continue, with a weak frontal boundary/trough moving south over
the area late today through tonight. Mostly clear/clear skies and
north-northeast winds up to about 5-15 mph rest of today with pleasant
temps in the 80s this aftn. Little change needed with the weather
forecast.
For the coastal areas, latest buoys reported seas of 3-4 ft over
the northeast FL waters. This suggests a high rip current risk and
matches well with guidance. Therefore, started the high rip current
risk for northeast FL now, and hazard products have been updated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Dry post frontal northeasterly flow will keep conditions dry
while steering stratocumulus inland. There could be a few
sprinkles that brush the coastal areas of NE FL, mainly south of
St Augustine during the afternoon Wednesday. Another reinforcing
dry front will keep coastal conditions breezy through Thursday as
a wedge of high pressure to the north begins to move to the coast
of the Carolinas Thursday night resulting in a shift to an
easterly onshore flow. There could be some patchy fog develop
beneath clear skies late Thursday night as winds decouple.
A pleasant week ahead with cool mornings in the mid 50s inland
and mid 60s at the coast and highs pushing to the low/mid 80s.
Afternoon temps will be lower at the coast due to the cooler
Atlantic sea breeze influence.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Dry conditions persist to end the week and into next weekend as
high pressure builds off the coast as the next frontal system
approaches from the west. Comfortable, near-climo temperatures are
expected beneath a flattening ridge and eventually a zone mid
level flow. Some warming is likely to close out the weekend as
flow turns southerly ahead of a warm front lifting out of the
Gulf.
In the extended forecast there is still disagreement on how and
when the incoming cold front will reach the area. The scenarios
being considered are dependent on the upper trough amplification.
There is better agreement this morning on a deeper trough pushing
a tongue of moisture out of the Gulf ahead of the front. Chances
for rain has increased some but, due to the loss of upper dynamics
and the time it will take to overcome the lingering dry air
aloft, PoP is still on the low side (

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion