Girard, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

394
FXUS62 KCAE 051040
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
640 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect temperatures to warm through the remainder of the week,
rising to above normal values today and Saturday. A cold front moves
into the area this weekend, leading to a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Cooler weather is expected early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Relatively hot and humid Friday but remaining dry.
Today: The shortwave that brought some forcing into SC will
weaken and shift to the east after sunrise. Moisture remains
relatively high today, especially in the low levels with PWATs
around 1.5 inches and dew points in the 60s once again. Forecast
soundings do indicate a subsidence inversion around 10kft with
a substantial layer of dry air in the mid and upper levels. This
will limit precipitation chances today. While some HiRes models
are indicating an isolated shower or storm developing with
daytime heating, with layer of dry air aloft and general
subsidence over the area, most of the area remains dry today
with some scattered cumulus clouds. Another relatively hot and
humid day is expected with low level warm advection and rising
heights in response to a strengthening ridge over the Atlantic.
Highs in the low to mid 90s expected. Tonight, lows will also
moderate, in the upper 60s to around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Hot and humid on Saturday with a chance of late day showers or
thunderstorms, especially across the north and west.
- A cold front moves into the area late this weekend, leading to
another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, especially
in the eastern Midlands.
An upper trough will be positioned over the Great Lakes on Saturday,
moving slowly eastward as the weekend goes on. At the surface, an
occluded cyclone near Hudson Bay will drag a cold front into the
region, likely passing through the FA Saturday night into Sunday.
High pressure builds in behind the boundary late Sunday into Sunday
night, ushering in a cooler and drier air mass for early next week.
Saturday and Saturday Night: Another hot and humid day is expected
with temperatures climbing into the lower 90s and heat index values
in the mid to upper 90s as moisture rises ahead of the approaching
cold front. The latest hi-res guidance suggests that a weakening
line of convection will move into the FA towards evening with the
highest probability of rain across the north and west.
Sunday and Sunday Night: The front could clear the CWA by daybreak
Sunday. As winds shift to the northwest, a cooler and drier air mass
will be working in. This should result in lower daytime
temperatures, especially towards the Upstate. In fact, there may be
a large northwest to southeast temperature gradient across the
region with highs ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 90s. A few
showers and thunderstorms will also be possible during the afternoon
and evening hours, mainly across the eastern Midlands. A weak area
of low pressure may form off the coast which would shift winds to
the northeast if it develops. High pressure builds in Sunday night
resulting in clearing skies and cooler overnight temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Cooler and drier weather expected next week behind the front.
- Temperatures begin to warm up during the mid to late week period.
The upper pattern during the extended should consist of building
ridging off the coast and weak troughing to our west though mid-week
before a ridge builds over the Central CONUS. High pressure should
provide mainly dry weather in the extended, with the highest rain
chances towards the coast. A tight pressure gradient may result in
breezy conditions most days, depending on how the Synoptic pattern
sets up. Temperatures will be below seasonal values, coolest on
Tuesday, followed by a gradual warming trend through the end of the
work week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions likely through the period.
VFR conditions in place at all the terminals with some scattered
cumulus around 5kft. Cumulus field becoming more widespread
later this morning into early afternoon but high probability of
VFR conditions. Convection remains unlikely today with dry air
in the mid and upper levels. Winds remain light today out of the
southwest around 5 kts. Winds become light and variable shortly
after sunset with cumulus clouds dissipating. With clearing
skies tonight and light winds, there remains possibility for
some fog development, especially for OGB/AGS. Guidance places
timing right around sunrise and confidence is fairly low at this
point so have left it out of the TAF for now.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry weather likely through Saturday.
A front will work into the region late this weekend and may lead to
convection and restrictions on Sunday afternoon.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion