Goessel, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS63 KICT 121915
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
215 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday.
- Shower and storm chances will increase starting Sunday morning
  and continue into early Sunday evening.
- Slightly above normal temps to start the work week with
  increased rain chances and cooler temps for the late Tue
  night-Wed night time frame.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Currently have broad upper troughing extending from the Northern
Intermountain down into Southern CA. There are a couple vort
lobes embedded in the trough, one generally over Southern CA
with additional energy over the Great Basin. Meanwhile further
east, upper ridging extends from the Upper Mississippi Valley
through the Southern Plains.
Not much is expected to change in the overall pattern for
tonight into Sat morning, with trough remaining out west and
upper ridging moving slightly east. This will allow for another
day with highs in the low 90s and gusty southwest winds. By Sat
afternoon, southern stream vort lobe will be lifting across the
Four Corners region and across the Central Rockies Sat evening.
Showers and storms will increase in coverage Sat night across
Western KS as upper impulse continues to push east. Compact
upper trough is expected to lift across northwest KS by Sun
afternoon as it takes on more of a negative tilt. Models agree
on surface trough/weak cold front staying west of the forecast
area on Sun afternoon. So any surface convection on Sunday
should develop west of our forecast area. However, areas along
and west of I-135 will remain in an area of 850-700mb moisture
transport on Sun, so at least some scattered activity can be
expected. Any of the surface convection will have a good chance
to be strong to marginally severe given ample shear/instability
combos. Convection further east will be limited on instability,
so maybe a bit more challenging to get a robust storm.
Upper impulse will quickly lift northeast, limiting rainfall
chances after Sun evening. Another piece of energy is then
expected to slowly move into the Northern Intermountain by early
Mon morning and move into the Northern High Plains by Tue
evening. Ahead of this wave we are looking for a return to
slightly above normal temps for Mon along with dry conditions.
Shortwave will continue tracking east across the
Central/Northern Plains Tue night into Wed and will allow a weak
cold front to move into the forecast area. This will bring
increased rain chances starting late Tue night and continuing
through Wed night. With the increased rain chances, we will also
see some cooler temps.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions expected for the next 24hrs across the region
with south winds decreasing around sunset. Meanwhile low level
wind shear will affect central Kansas sites for late tonight
into the early morning hours on Saturday. South winds will
gradually increase again across the region during the day on
Saturday.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion