Gold Creek County Park Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

966
FXUS66 KSEW 130507
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1007 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.UPDATE...A meso low continues to produce showers across western WA
this evening. While thunder has ended, lowland areas will continue
to see showers through tonight, although focus turns to snow
continuing to fall in the Cascades as snow levels drop with the
cooler air sinking in. A wind advisory also went into effect this
evening for western Whatcom and San Juan Counties for gusty Fraser
Outflow as wings will continue to pick up tonight into Monday.
Previous discussion follows with updated aviation section.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025/
.SYNOPSIS...A cool upper low will bring more showers and mountain
snow to western Washington tonight through early Monday morning.
Offshore flow will result in cool and dry conditions through
midweek. A weak system will bring a chance of rain on Thursday and
Friday. Expect wetter weather over the weekend with a stronger
Pacific frontal system.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A deep upper low is
passing through western WA this afternoon. The air mass is cool
and showery with high elevation snow in the mountains. Snow levels
will lower tonight, down to around 3,000-4,000 ft, with
additional snow in the Cascades. Higher passes like Washington
Pass and Stevens Pass may see accumulations with wet roads
(rain/snow mix) at Snoqualmie Pass. Showers will taper down Monday
morning as this system exits south.
Gusty NE Fraser River outflow winds will develop this evening over
the north interior with strong high pressure over B.C. Winds of 20
to 30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH are expected across western Whatcom
County and the San Juans. Winds will ease Monday afternoon.
Offshore flow will lead to dry and cool conditions on Tuesday.
Morning lows will be close to freezing with possible frost in the
lowlands (especially sheltered areas and areas near the Cascades).
Expect highs around 60 with clear skies. We may see one more cool
morning on Wednesday before winds turn back to onshore. 33
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Weak high pressure moves
in on Thursday but models are showing light warm frontal precip
along the coast. A weak front will move inland Thursday night for
a chance of light rain across the board. Light rain lingers on
Friday with onshore flow. Pops increase on Saturday and Sunday as
a wetter Pacific frontal system moves inland. 33
.AVIATION...Upper level low over Western Washington Sunday evening
will move south southwest into Monday ending up off the Southern
Oregon coast Monday afternoon. Light flow aloft becoming
southeasterly overnight and northeasterly Monday afternoon.
Offshore flow in the lower levels.
Mostly VFR ceilings overnight with localized MVFR ceilings in
heavier showers. Shower activity decreasing Monday morning with
clearing trend Monday afternoon. Fraser river outflow winds over
the Northwest Interior with winds gusting to 30 knots. Outflow
winds easing late Monday afternoon.
KSEA...VFR ceilings through Monday morning with skies clearing
Monday afternoon. Northeast wind 6 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to
15 knots Monday morning. Felton
.MARINE...A low pressure system will continue to move southward
along the coast into Monday, with northeasterly winds increasing
tonight and into Monday. Small craft Advisory strength winds will
continue through most of the coastal waters on Monday. Fraser
Outflow winds will develop tonight and bring frequent gale gusts
in the Strait of Georgia north of the San Juan Islands, where a
Gale Warning will remain, along with the small craft advisory
in the Central and East Strait. Winds will gradually decrease
through Monday afternoon and evening as the aforementioned low
pressure system shifts south to California. High pressure looks to
build Tuesday and into Wednesday which will bring light onshore
flow through the area waters.
Combined seas 9 to 11 feet this afternoon will gradually decrease
into Monday morning, with seas still remaining steep with a
dominant period of 10 seconds. Seas will be 7 to 10 feet on Monday
with a dominant period of 7 or 8 seconds. Seas will lower to 4 to
6 feet on Tuesday through midweek.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT Monday for Lowlands of Western
     Whatcom County-San Juan County.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Cascades of
     Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom
     and Skagit Counties.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for Cascades of
     Pierce and Lewis Counties.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 2 PM PDT Monday for Northern Inland Waters
     Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
     To 60 Nm.
&&
$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion