Golden New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

472
FXUS65 KABQ 092013
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
213 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
- An abnormally strong plume of moisture associated with the
  remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and another tropical system
  early next week will bring daily rounds of scattered to numerous
  showers and thunderstorms mainly along and west of the central
  mountain chain over the next 7 days.
- Marginal to slight risks of excessive rainfall threatening flash
  flooding mainly over portions of western NM will present each
  day through the weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
The 592 dm H5 high pressure over Texas continues to amplify its
reach over the intermountain west. Meanwhile, the Pacific low
currently off the coast of Cascadia is beginning its approach to the
Oregon shores, where it will eventually join the main synoptic flow
and bring a digging trough into the central Rockies. The current
synoptic set up, with a high to our east and and an expansive low
pressure system to our west, is creating a corridor for rich
subtropical moisture to make its way north into the Desert
Southwest. Some of this moisture is even of tropical origin, as
tropical storm Priscilla will continue moving north and dissipate
over Baja California, where southerly flow will continue to pump in
some anomalously high moisture for this time of year. However, it
appears that the influence of the high over the Texas plains will
keep most shower activity along the continental divide and west,
with Arizona getting the brunt of the thunderstorm activity for the
next couple of days.
So far this afternoon scattered to broken mid and upper level cloud
cover has been streaming in from the southwest, bringing in some
light showers into far west-central New Mexico. Lift indices for
today look unfavorable, so with meager instability and weak forcing
aloft, most shower and storm activity looks to be orographically
forced along the western high terrain. Expanded Pops around the
Four Corners, where a few tenths may fall this afternoon. A few
light showers may develop over the northern half of the central
mountain chain, only amounting to a few hundredths to a tenth.
Modeled precipitable water content looks to climb to about an inch
here at Albuquerque and about 1.1 to 1.2 in the Four Corners for
Friday, which would be near record for this time of year. Persistent
cloud cover looks to limit instability once again, but there could
be some better ascent aloft as the approaching Pacific trough begins
to introduce some diffluent flow over northern Arizona. In any case,
rain rates don`t appear to be too concerning, the main thing to pay
attention to regarding flooding impacts will be the development of
multiple training storms from southwest to northeast along western
New Mexico. Surging moisture looks to create bursts of storms
throughout the afternoon and into Friday night in the northwest
corner of the state. Have opted not to got with a Flood Watch like
our surrounding neighbors as it seems the heavier rain will remain
north near the colorado border and west over Arizona. Rainfall
totals look to be spread out over several hours, with locally
heavier amounts over the Chuska and Tusas mountains. Outside of
western and northern NM, most areas will be pretty much
precipitation free, with near average temperatures heading into
the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
As Saturday afternoon rolls around, the Pacific low will have opened
up into a trough and digging into the Great Basin, lowering heights
over New Mexico and squashing the H5 high over Texas. Better forcing
should allow for more numerous and heavier storms along the western
half of New Mexico. Three day rainfall totals through Sunday
actually decreased a tad with this forecast package. Three-day
accumulations of 1 to 1.5 inches over the Four Corners and Tusas
mountains may create minor flooding impacts. 90th percentile
rainfall amounts show higher accumulations of 2 to 2.5 inches,
particularly over the Tusas mountains. Several rivers and streams
may see rises of 2 to 5 feet, however, they are not expected to
surpass minor flood thresholds. Storm activity will spread east
into the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain by late
Saturday. Would not be surprised a couple of flash flood warning
may be issued for repeated bands of rainfall for parts of
northwest NM. WPC has put out a slight risk of excessive rainfall
for areas along and west of the Continental Divide and a marginal
for areas east towards the central mountain chain. Strong and
erratic wind gusts will be a threat with any thunderstorm, but
overall winds throughout the region look to be a steady 10 to 15
knots.
Shower activity could continue into the late night hours on Saturday
and into the early morning hours on Sunday as the main trough axis
begins to push through the central Rockies. Drier westerly flow
behind the front will lower precipitation chances through the
region for Sunday afternoon. Increased wind speeds into the 20 to 30
mph range for the northeast highlands and plains, as downsloping
looks to create some breezy conditions. Higher (50%) rain chances
will remain mainly for the southwestern high terrain where PWATs
will still be above average.
That same central Rockies trough will then push a backdoor cold
front through northeast New Mexico on Monday. This looks to set up a
boundary along central New Mexico where thunderstorms look to
develop during the afternoon. There is still some uncertainty
regarding how much tropical moisture and cloud cover may make it
up into New Mexico, but current ensembles are favoring the New
Mexico bootheel as the main area of concern for heavy rain.
However, scattered showers will extend throughout the state, with
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.1 to 1 inch. Monday could also be
the first day that the Ruidoso area burn scars once again receive
some precipitation, increasing the threat of burn scar flash
flooding. Continuing into the middle of the week, rich and
anomalous moisture will keep streaming into New Mexico, allowing
for scattered shower activity to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday
as well. Overall, a wet pattern for mid October, with 7 day
rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches in some parts of western New
Mexico.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Broken mid-level cloud cover at most sites to the west of the
central mountain chain. Vicinity showers will affect KFMN and KGUP
throughout the afternoon. A brief thunderstorm may also affect both
locations during the later part of the afternoon and early evening.
Low confidence for a brief shower to develop over the Sandias and
over the Sangre de Cristo mountains, possibly affecting KABQ and
KSAF. Ceilings then look to become MVFR at KFMN overnight,
persisting into the early morning hours. Winds will be
predominantly from the south this afternoon, with some stronger 15
to 20 kt wind gusts for sites out east.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum for the forecast
period. Minimum relative humidity values only bottom out at
around 30% on the driest days. Anomalously high moisture will
create scattered to numerous showers through next week, favoring
western and central New Mexico. Winds will be mainly out of the
south but shift west on Sunday, with stronger 15 to 20 kt gusts in
northeast areas. A backdoor front will push through the area on
Monday, cooling temperatures, and invigorating shower activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  59  72  58 /  30  60  70  80
Dulce...........................  74  47  69  47 /  30  60  70  70
Cuba............................  71  50  71  51 /  30  30  40  50
Gallup..........................  72  52  72  51 /  40  50  50  70
El Morro........................  69  51  71  51 /  40  30  50  60
Grants..........................  72  50  72  52 /  30  30  50  50
Quemado.........................  72  50  74  53 /  20  20  30  40
Magdalena.......................  72  53  72  57 /  20   5  10  10
Datil...........................  69  49  70  52 /  20  10  20  30
Reserve.........................  77  49  80  52 /  30  10  20  30
Glenwood........................  83  54  84  56 /  30  10  10  30
Chama...........................  69  45  65  45 /  20  40  60  60
Los Alamos......................  69  52  70  54 /  20  20  20  30
Pecos...........................  71  49  71  51 /  20  10  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  72  49  71  50 /  10  10  20  30
Red River.......................  64  41  62  43 /  10  10  20  20
Angel Fire......................  68  34  67  37 /  20   5  20  10
Taos............................  74  47  73  49 /  10  10  20  20
Mora............................  70  44  70  46 /  30  10  20  10
Espanola........................  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Fe........................  71  53  72  55 /  20  10  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  73  52  74  53 /  20  10  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  75  60  76  62 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  77  58  78  60 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  57  80  59 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  77  58  78  61 /  10  10  10  20
Belen...........................  80  55  80  58 /  10   5   5  10
Bernalillo......................  78  57  79  59 /  10  10  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  79  54  80  57 /  10  10  10  20
Corrales........................  79  58  80  60 /  10  10  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  79  56  80  58 /  10  10  10  20
Placitas........................  73  56  74  58 /  10  10  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  77  57  79  59 /  10  10  10  20
Socorro.........................  81  58  81  61 /  10   5   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  70  52  70  53 /  10  10  10  20
Tijeras.........................  71  54  72  56 /  10  10  10  20
Edgewood........................  72  48  73  51 /  10   5  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  74  46  75  49 /  10   5  10  10
Clines Corners..................  70  48  69  51 /  10   5  10   5
Mountainair.....................  72  49  72  53 /  10   5   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  72  48  73  52 /  10   5   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  75  53  75  56 /   5   0  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  68  48  68  51 /  10   5  10   5
Capulin.........................  74  48  72  51 /   5   0   5   0
Raton...........................  77  47  75  50 /   5   0  10   5
Springer........................  77  48  77  52 /   5   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  71  48  70  50 /  20   5  10   5
Clayton.........................  80  55  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  75  52  74  55 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  80  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  76  52  76  56 /   5   0   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  80  54  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  81  56  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  81  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  78  55  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  82  58  81  59 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  77  52  77  54 /   5   0   5   0
Elk.............................  75  50  75  51 /  10   0  10   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion