Gordontown, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

699
FXUS62 KRAH 101751
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend down through
the Mid Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work week,
although a lingering frontal zone near the Carolina coast will bring
periods of clouds and unsettled weather, mainly over the eastern
Carolinas.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Wednesday...
* Cloudy and below normal in the east, with a chance of evening and
  overnight light rain or showers from Raleigh north and east
* A mix of clouds and sun in the west and southwest
A rather pesky offshore low, presently east of the Outer Banks, is
churning along a stalled frontal boundary. The system is forecast to
gradually move north and then northeast over the next 24 hours,
reaching the N. Atlantic by Thu morning. Meanwhile, high pressure
will strengthen tonight as the low departs, settling into the
central and southern Appalachians, keeping us in that cool NE flow.
A moist NE flow around the aforementioned low is leading to lots of
stratocumulus clouds moving westward. The edge of the boundary is
presently over the western Piedmont, while it is well entrenched
over the Coastal Plain and eastern NC. This will be the case for
much of today, with little erosion of the stratocumulus deck
along/east of the Triangle. There could be some breaks in the clouds
late in the day over Raleigh, but a better area of sun will be
favored over the Triad as the low departs and flow shifts ever so
slightly from a NNE to a N direction. Highs will again be below
normal, where some spots over the northeast may not get out of the
upper 60s. Otherwise, expect upper 70s to low 80s in the west and
southwest with more sun, mid 70s in the Triangle, and low 70s NE.
Tonight, as the low departs, the low-level moist layer will still be
trapped under the subsidence inversion. That layer is forecast in
the guidance to persist from the Sandhills and central/eastern
Piedmont to the Coastal Plain as another surge of 925 mb high RH
overspreads this region. Forecast soundings also show a shallow
unstable layer above the 925-850 mb layer, allowing for some
isolated rain or showers tonight into early Thu. This is most
favored from RDU north and east. The HRRR/HREF are indicating some
isolated pockets in the NE Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain could
see over a half inch of rain, though most areas will see a tenth of
an inch or less. Raised rain chances in this area tonight to around
30 percent as a result, but they may need to be further increased
with the day shift. Lows will be in the upper 50s W to low 60s E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...
While low pressure off the North Carolina coast will be moving north
along the nearly stationary front, the flow will remain persistent
out of the north on Thursday. Similar to today, there will likely be
a gradient at sunrise of mostly sunny skies in the Triad to mostly
cloudy skies in the east. However, cloud cover should slowly scatter
out through the day. Cannot rule out an isolated shower east of US-1
along with some patchy drizzle northeast of Raleigh, but think that
the overall coverage of precipitation should be less than today.
Highs in the west should be similar to today`s values, around 80
degrees. Highs in the east should be a few degrees warmer than today
with less cloud cover. Lows should be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...
High pressure will be centered over southern Quebec Friday morning
with a ridge extending south into the Carolinas. The center of the
ridge will shift into the Carolinas by Sunday as a cold front moves
across the Great Lakes and low pressure reaches Lake Ontario. A
second cold front, one that has been along the Atlantic seaboard for
several days, could still bring an isolated shower into eastern
North Carolina over the weekend, but central North Carolina should
remain dry. The Great Lakes cold front should move across North
Carolina on Monday, but with minimal moisture, no rain is predicted
with the frontal passage. Behind the front, high pressure should re-
establish itself over the northeastern United States Tuesday and
push into the Carolinas on Wednesday.
Highs should be a couple degrees below normal at the start of the
period, ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s, before increasing
Sunday and Monday. Monday will have the highest temperatures of the
period, with highs in the 80s and an isolated 90 degree reading
possible. After the cold front moves through, highs will return to
the mid 70s through the mid 80s. 60s are expected Sunday and Monday
nights, with most locations in the 50s otherwise.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wednesday...
Weak high pressure will continue to nose southward over western and
central NC through early Thu, although the presence of a stationary
frontal zone just off the NC coast, and low pressure tracking
northward along it, will bring continue low level moisture
especially over the E and a risk for poor aviation conditions
through tonight. VFR conditions continue at INT/GSO this afternoon,
and while adverse aviation conditions persist at RDU/FAY/RWI (MVFR
cigs) currently, there has been gradual improvement since this
morning. This will continue for the rest of the afternoon at
RDU/FAY, which are expected to trend to VFR by 20z, although RWI
cigs are likely to stay MVFR through sunset. Given a steady stream
of low level moisture moving into central NC from the NNE through
tonight, RWI is expected to drop back to IFR by 04z-06z, as will
RDU/FAY by 06z-08z, with a period of LIFR conditions and patchy
drizzle possible at these 3 sites late, mainly 08z-12z. INT/GSO are
likely to stay VFR past 04z, however there is a decent chance of
shallow ground fog producing a period of IFR conditions there 08z-
12z, with quick improvement to VFR soon thereafter with heating and
dissipation of any fog/stratus. Improvement will be slower at
RDU/FAY and especially at RWI, with these sites expected to
gradually trend to VFR between 14z and 16z. Surface winds will be
from the NNE or N, around 8-12 kts with a few gusts at eastern
terminals through sunset, then dropping to under 8 kts this evening
through Thu.
Looking beyond 18z Thu, RWI cigs may remain MVFR into at least mid
afternoon Thu. Otherwise, with slow drying taking place, central NC
terminals should be mostly VFR into early next week, with ridges of
high pressure dominating at the surface, although a few more clouds
and gusty winds are possible Fri with passage of an upper level
disturbance over the area. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion