Graham, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

796
FXUS62 KJAX 011656
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1256 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions Continue through the. High
  Risk of Rip Currents, High Surf & Small Craft Advisories Remain
  in Effect
- Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding Through the Weekend. Today:
  St. Johns River Basin, NE FL Coast and Intracoastal Waterways
  South of. Expands to SE GA and NE FL coasts and the whole St
  Johns River Basin
- Showers & TStorms Increase from Thursday through Monday.
  Multiple Rounds of Heavy Downpours and Isolated Embedded
  Thunderstorms. Localized Flooding Possible at Coastal and Low-
  lying Locations
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
As high pressure ridge builds down the SE US coastline later today
and tonight, still on track for a NE wind surge to push into the
Atlantic Coastal counties with sustained winds increasing to
15-25mph with gusts of 30-40 mph expected, while near breezy winds
are expected over inland areas later today at 10-15G20-25 mph,
before decreasing to around 10 mph after sunset. This surge of
winds will bring additional moisture and convergence along
Atlantic Coastal area with increasing rainfall chances, as only
isolated showers are expected across NE FL this afternoon and
evening, then becoming more scattered to numerous in nature
tonight over the Atlantic Coastal waters which will push onshore
into the St. Johns/Flagler county areas during the overnight hours
with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall potential towards
morning, with some of the activity reaching into the St. Johns
River Basin at times. Low temps will fall into the lower/middle
60s across inland SE GA and upper 60s/near 70F across inland NE FL
and remain in the lower to middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal
areas in the breezy to windy onshore flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Strong high pressure will remain centered to the northeast this
period, with the ridge extending south across the area. An inverted
trough is expected to persist over the coastal waters. The inverted
trough will provide convergence for showers, and a few diurnal
thunderstorms this period. The greatest chance for precipitation
will be over eastern counties, as showers will tend to dissipate
further inland due to drier air and ridging.
A fairly tight pressure gradient will be located over the area this
period, leading to elevated onshore winds. Breezy conditions will
prevail near the coast, with winds decreasing further inland.
Due to the expected cloud and precipitation coverage Highs on
Thursday and Friday will range from 80 to 85, with the coolest
readings near the coast. A few locations over coastal SE GA may not
reach 80 on Friday. Temperatures will not fall as much near the
coast during the nights due to the cloud cover. So, lows will range
from the lower to mid 60s inland, to the lower 70s near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The high pressure center will slowly move further to the east
northeast and weaken somewhat this period. Long range models
continue to depict coastal troughing lingering throughout this
period. The strength of the onshore flow will gradually lessen from
day to day, with coastal winds decreasing.
Highs in the lower to middle 80s will be common this period, with
the coolest readings still at the coast. Lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, with warmest readings at the coast. The added cloud cover
will be responsible for the cooler days and warmer nights near the
coast.
Precipitation chances will persist this period, with greatest
chances near the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS as the NE wind surge sets in place with
CIGS mainly in the 2500-3500 ft range that will fade at inland
terminals of GNV/VQQ/JAX after sunset (00Z) leaving just VFR
conds, while the coastal terminals will remain with better chances
of MVFR conds and VCSH as rainfall chances increase. Will continue
PROB30 groups at the SGJ terminal as rainfall chances increase
during the second half of the TAF period from 06-18Z. Wind gusts
will generally be in the 20-25 knot range, except for potential
for 30 knot wind gusts at SGJ late in the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong north-northeasterly
winds and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters
through the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with
occasional wind gusts to Gale Force. Strong high pressure will
wedge down the southeastern seaboard tonight and Thursday. Coastal
troughing will sharpen over our local waters late this week,
generating increasing chances for showers and embedded
thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday. Winds will shift to
easterly by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts
offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states. Gale Watches and/or Warnings
may need to be posted as the pinched pressure gradient increases
late Thursday Night into Friday.
Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory
conditions, along with moderate to severe beach erosion will
continue at Atlantic beachfront locations through this week and
into the upcoming weekend. Surf/breakers into the 8-12 ft range
will continue this week into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Minor tidal flooding will continue along the St. Johns River from
downtown JAX southward and along the NE FL Atlantic inter-coastal
areas of St. Johns/Flagler counties through Thursday and will keep
Coastal Flood Advisory in place as peak water levels remain
generally in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The NE surge of
winds arriving tonight will start to trap more water in the St.
Johns River Basin and combine with higher astronomical tides due
to the full Moon during the Thursday afternoon and evening high
tide cycle and expect water levels to peak around 2 ft above MHHW,
which will require at least Coastal Flood Advisories for
widespread Minor Coastal Flooding for the entire St. Johns River
Basin and all beachfront locations of NE FL/SE GA from late
Thursday through the weekend. The latest PETSS guidance is still
advertising water levels peaking closer to 2.0 to 2.5 ft above
MHHW for the late Friday high tide cycle and all through the
weekend for the potential for widespread Moderate coastal flooding
on the St. Johns River Basin and at least locally Moderate water
levels at NE FL/SE GA beachfront locations, along with moderate to
severe beach erosion and a Coastal Flood Watch and/or Warning may
need to be posted at some point for this scenario.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  81  62  81 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  71  79  70  79 /  10  20  50  50
JAX  70  82  68  82 /  10  30  40  60
SGJ  73  82  71  82 /  40  50  60  70
GNV  70  85  67  85 /  10  20  20  40
OCF  70  85  70  84 /  10  30  10  40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ132-137-138-
     233-325-333-633.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion