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Grand Lake Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

398
FXUS63 KAPX 132337
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 737 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers this afternoon/evening.

- Cooler Tuesday-Wednesday with temperatures rebounding again late in the week.

- Better chances for showers return over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, closed upper-level low pressure sits near the Manitoba/Ontario border with attendant sfc low pressure nearing Hudson Bay. Associated cold front draped to the south across northern Ontario, the central U.P. into eastern WI. This boundary will make slow eastward progress across northern MI early this evening through tonight accompanied by decaying shower chances.

In the wake of this system, upper-level heights build with upstream sfc high pressure settling in across the upper MS Valley and northern Great Lakes on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, low pressure begins to show signs of materializing lee of the Rockies with a developing warm front stretched from the Plains into the mid-MS Valley. Increased isentropic ascent north of this boundary, despite paltry moisture, may yield another low end shower chance Tuesday night.

Forecast Details: As expected, showers really struggling with eastward extent across northern MI so far today, with the primary axis of any shower activity having been stuck upstream over parts of northeast WI and central U.P. While shower chances do gradually build farther east into parts of northern lower and eastern upper through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, not really appearing to be much hope for meaningful rain amounts. Otherwise, winds turn northwesterly post fropa tonight with lows largely in the 40s area-wide. Some low probabilities for at least patchy fog once again, but highly dependent on overnight cloud trends and the ability for winds to decouple after veering out of the northwest.

Any Tuesday morning fog/stratus should again gradually burn off/mix out with partly sunny skies anticipated by Tuesday afternoon. High temps expected to be a good 10+ degrees cooler than today in many areas -- largely spanning the 50s -- save for some low-mid 60s creeping in near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Day 3-4 (Wednesday - Thursday):

High pressure largely in control through the midweek timeframe. Plenty of sunshine anticipated Wednesday with highs in the 50s. Chilly Wednesday night with growing probabilities for some of the typically colder icebox locations to fall to near 20 F for a low temp Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Winds turn out of the south Thursday with daytime highs rebounding a handful of degrees. Increasing clouds to be the rule, especially late in the day, in advance of another round of isentropically driven precip that may cross the area Thursday night.

Day 5-7 (Friday - Sunday): By late in the week, low pressure is expected to be situated near the Manitoba/Ontario border with Thursday night`s warm front positioned well to the north. Temps creep up another few degrees for Friday before another round of showers and even a few rumbles of thunder becomes increasingly likely Saturday as a cold front makes headway west to east across the Great Lakes. Cooler again behind that boundary with potential for lake effect/enhanced rain showers to wrap up the tail end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 736 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Slow moving, weak front draped from SW WI to the central U.P. this evening to slowly pivot down into Northern Lower MI with time tonight...and expect wind shift from light and variable to NW 5-10kts between 03-08z starting at CIU first; could gust as high as 15- 20kts with the front but left this idea out for now. Light/isolated SHRA and/or -DZ through about 4-6z with a dip to MVFR cigs with the front overhead; SHRA/DZ more likely at CIU and PLN. Do still have concerns about fog tonight at all sites despite front dropping thru, and have this idea in the TAFs again...both early on this evening and again behind the front overnight, but not sure it will be as much as last night. Low moisture to mix out in the morning with 15kft+ cloud deck sliding overhead through the day; think some daytime cumulus (bases around 2-5kft) will develop during the day though. Winds stay up from the N through the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...FEF

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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