Your favorites:

Grand Rapids, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

908
FXUS63 KBIS 120945
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 445 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week.

- Medium probabilities for at least an inch of rain across the western half of the state through this weekend.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon through Sunday.

- Temperatures favored to remain near to above average through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 444 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

A positively tilted longwave trough axis extends from central Saskatchewan to the Sierra Nevada early this morning, with a lee surface trough from southwest North Dakota to the Nebraska panhandle. Shortwave energy ejecting from the base of the longwave trough into the Northern Plains has been responsible for clusters of showers and thunderstorms since last evening. At 4 AM CDT, convection was much calmer across western and central North Dakota than earlier in the night. A few showers were bubbling in the northern James River Valley along outflow from a departing MCS. A larger area of mostly light rain was focused from around Dickinson to Hettinger, with a few embedded updrafts recently showing signs of intensification. There were also isolated to scattered showers with infrequent lightning lifting northeast through the southern James River Valley. In other news, patchy dense fog has developed across northwest North Dakota. Surface observational trends and webcams suggest that visibility around one quarter mile or less is highly terrain-dependent. Will therefore continue to handle with a Special Weather Statement unless or until conditions change.

Low chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast this morning and afternoon, mainly across the southern half of the state, but think that drier conditions will be more common today as flow aloft briefly becomes anticyclonic. Surface low pressure broadening over western and central South Dakota will help maintain the humid air mass in place, with widespread dewpoints in the 60s and possibly reaching above 70. Most of western and central North Dakota should be a few degrees cooler today, but still above average with highs around 80 to 85.

From tonight through this weekend, the longwave trough axis will pivot to a negative tilt, with the base of the subsequent shorter wavelength trough moving poleward across the region late Sunday into Monday. This will bring waves of strong synoptic forcing across the western half of the state, resulting in several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. The timing of highest confidence in showers and storms is during the day Saturday when a 700 mb low is forecast to close underneath the left exit region of an upper jet, and deterministic models show a repeat of this setup Sunday evening. NBM probabilities for at least an inch of rain through Monday have risen to 50 to 70 percent across the western half of the state, and the axis of highest probabilities has shifted slightly eastward to between Highways 85 and 83. The potential for high rain amounts is well supported by ensemble climatological tools showing near record values for precipitable water and low level specific humidity, as well as a shift of tails in the EFI QPF output. We do expect that final rainfall amounts will be highly variable given convective influences.

Enough CAPE and shear are forecast to be present to support an isolated risk for severe storms at times from late this afternoon through the weekend. Overall confidence in the convective aspect of the forecast remains low however, with CAMs continuing to show a wide variety of outcomes with placement, timing, and intensity of convection. In addition, most, if not all convection is likely to be elevated. There does appear to a low-probability scenario for a supercell or two south and west of the Missouri River late this afternoon and evening, which temporally corresponds to the highest forecast CAPE (as much as 2000 J/kg per HREF mean) as well as a projected temporary enhancement in deep layer shear (as high as 40 kts). The arrival of stronger forcing later tonight into Saturday should weaken atmospheric instability, but there is still potential for a few embedded storms to become strong to severe at times, as is being advertised by CAMs` UH tracks and highlighted by SPC`s convective outlooks through Sunday. Central North Dakota has a relatively higher risk (albeit still low) for a severe storm over the weekend than the west.

The favored departure time of the negatively-tilted trough has been pushed back to Monday evening/night, shifting the most likely period of drier weather to that time frame. By late Tuesday, another upper low is forecast to meander into the region. This low could stall and bring several more rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region mid to late next week, but discernible differences in the synoptic pattern begin to emerge in cluster analysis by Thursday.

Cooler daytime temperatures are expected on Saturday and Sunday. Forecast highs each day are generally in the 70s, but any locations where it rains most of the day could be stuck in the 60s. The NBM temperature distribution shows a subtle warmup for Monday and Tuesday before a more distinct cool down to near average temperatures by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals initially in this forecast cycle. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be making their way into southwest North Dakota early this morning. Added a VCTS mention at KDIK for this potential. Otherwise, lowering cigs and the development of fog is expected at KXWA/KMOT closer to the 12Z time frame this morning. MVFR/IFR cigs and IFR vsbys will be possible at these two terminals just prior to and after sunrise. These conditions should gradually improve mid/late morning. Southeast winds will persist through the overnight hours before turning to the east to northeast mid/late morning with the exception of KJMS where a east-southeast component to the wind will persist longer through the day.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...WFO ABR

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion

WeatherForYou.com, LLC is not responsible for any damages or problems caused by this service. Current weather conditions are obtained from the closest government operated station, a personal station contributing to the PWSweather.com network or from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS). Some weather information is powered by XWeather. WeatherForYou.com, NOAA, AerisWeather and their data providers disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use or inability to use the data. Like all things, this site belongs to Jesus Christ ... He just trusts us to maintain it. If you have any questions or comments please use the suggestion box.

Copyright © 1999 - 2025, WeatherForYou.com LLC. All rights reserved.