Granger, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

416
FXUS63 KDVN 012258
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
558 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The message remains the same, above normal temperatures look to
  continue into the weekend along with generally dry weather.
- Low chance for rainfall remains in the forecast for Sunday
  night into Monday with a slow moving cool front. Confidence
  remains low on the aspect if there will be enough available
  moisture for this feature to produce much of any rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Tonight...The area to continue on the left flank of main omega upper
ridge lobe, and some MO RVR upper level troffiness into Thursday. We
should just continue to have mid and high level cloudiness tonight
with east to southeast sfc winds of 5-10 MPH. These conditions
support the loaded NBM low temps of mid to upper 50s.
Thursday...The weak upstream upper troffiness mentioned above will
look to unsettle more overhead, and expect the ambient CU, mid and
high level clouds seen now acrs the west half of IA and the MO RVR
Valley to be over the local area tomorrow. We may even get a few
RADAR returns in the thicker AC like what`s going on out to the
west, but with ongoing dry low to mid levels expect precip to stay
aloft/virga. The loaded NBM high temps are in the mid to upper
80s with more of a southerly wind, but some worry the NBM values
may be too warm if we get heavier mid and upper level cloud
cover. The next upper ridge/thermal lobe starts adjust north
and expand up the plains Thu night, and locally we should have
more of a southerly sfc wind component. Milder low temps in the
upper 50s to lower 60s into Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Friday through Sunday...Latest ensembles continue to nudge broad
warm upper ridge acrs the region for unseasonable warm/hot temps
most of this period. A lot of upper 80s to near 90 and not that far
off of record highs at most of the climate sites both Saturday and
Sunday. South to southwesterly sfc winds mixing out to 10-20+ MPH by
midday and ongoing dry conditions/low RH`s may mean some enhanced
fire danger these days(Sat & Sun) especially in unharvested crop
fields.
Blocked pattern still looks to be acted upon by building long wave
upper trof acrs the western into the north central CONUS Sunday into
Monday. Associated sfc cool front aligned parallel under the trof`s
leeside southwesterlies will slowly progress and get shunted in from
the west-northwest Sunday night into Monday, and that`s when the
next precip chance window occurs mainly in anafront form. Moisture
return and feed into this feature still looks marginal and lacking a
more optimum source region, thus amount and coverage of any showers
for late Sunday night and Monday still uncertain.
Monday and Tuesday...The passing front, clouds and precip will also
play havoc with temp possibilities on Monday, and the loaded NBM
could be way off on the mild side. Also some signs the front may
stall or go quasi-stationary acrs the area into Tuesday until more
upper jet energy and troffiness digs down out of Canada and acrs the
Upper MS RVR Valley. Early to mid next week currently appears to be
trending cooler and with higher precip chances looking to occur
through Tuesday, before post-frontal sfc ridging dumps down out of
Canada and produces even cooler conditions backdoor style for next
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions to prevail through the period, with decreasing
high clouds. Light easterly winds will turn southerly Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Gross

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion