Grass Valley, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

111
FXUS65 KLKN 021943
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
* Strong Fall trough to bring beneficial rainfall across
  Northeastern Nevada today and tomorrow.
* Much cooler temperatures expected tomorrow through the
  beginning of next week with highs in the 50s and 60s, and
  overnight lows in the 20s to 30s.
* Temperature will recover back into the 60s and 70s next week,
  but low chances for showers will accompany the warm-up
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Our next weather maker has already
begun producing showers in western Nevada and is expected to
spread into central and eastern Nevada over the coming hours. The
upper level trough associated with the surface system is a slower
moving one and as a result showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to remain in the area through Saturday morning. The bulk
of the precipitation is expected on Friday, with most areas
expecting half an inch to an inch of precipitation. Mountain peaks
are also expected to receive a few inches of snow, although with
snow levels still above 8,000 feet no snow is expected at passes
or valleys. A cold front will also be present with this system,
passing through the area late today and into tomorrow. Behind the
front daytime temperatures will struggle to reach the 60s and
overnight temperatures drop into the 30s or even 20s. The trough
exits to the east late Saturday but a second, weaker trough is
expected to take its place, keeping conditions unsettled with a
chance for isolated showers mainly on Monday. A slow warming trend
also begins on Monday with daytime temperatures returning to the
60s and a few low 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the
presence of numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms through
Saturday morning. There is also high confidence for much cooler
temperatures behind today`s frontal passage. There is still only
moderate confidence in the development of the secondary trough for
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight
conditions through Friday. However, a strong incoming storm
system will bring increasing chances for -SHRA during the evening
across the KWMC-KBAM terminals, shifting east and south during
the night. -TSRA will be possible, but probability remains below
20% for any one terminal to meet inclusion in a TAF at this time.
Flight conditions Thursday evening through Friday along with
CIGS/VSBY will drop to MVFR/IFR levels for period of time in the
heavier showers. Winds will be breezy across the southern
terminals of KTPH and KELY out of the SW at 10 to 20 KT with gusts
up to 30 KT possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the next
several days as a large upper level storm system looks to bring
much needed rainfall and high elevation snow for all fire weather
zones for NE Nevada Thursday evening through Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the upper 50s to
low 60s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Sunday
through Thursday of next week will see temperatures recover back
into the upper 60s but a second upper trough pushing into the
region behind the first will keep conditions unsettled with a low
10% to 20% chance of showers.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98

NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion