Gravleeton Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

248
FXUS64 KBMX 141049
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
549 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
Sunny and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue
today and tomorrow as the deep-layer ridge builds over the ArkLaTex.
Weak height rises will occur today, allowing highs to reach about a
degree or two warmer than yesterday with many locations warming
into the mid 80s. North to northeasterly surface flow and clear
skies will support a cool night with lows in the lower to mid
50s. Some of the cooler valley locations in our northeast may fall
into the upper 40s shortly before sunrise. Upper 80s are expected
on Wednesday as 1000-850mb thicknesses continue to rise. The
ridge axis will shift slightly east as a deep upper-level trough
begins to move towards the Four Corners.
86/Martin
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
Heights will begin falling on Thursday as the ridge axis is forced
eastward by the deepening longwave trough axis over the Western
CONUS. Dry and warm conditions are forecast through the remainder of
the week as the ridge axis shifts east across Central Alabama.
Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will range from the 80s
during the day to 50s/60s at night. We finally get a shot at some
rain this weekend as the trough axis ejects across the Plains,
sending a cold front towards the Southeast. Low-level moisture will
increase ahead of the front Saturday, but the greatest instability
axis and thunderstorm activity is forecast to remain to our west
during the day with severe storms possible over the Midsouth region.
It does look like weak thermodynamic profiles and decreased forcing
could be a hindrance to a continued severe threat for our forecast
area Saturday night, but we will begin to narrow down the details
later this week. Forecast rain amounts are ranging from about 1.25"
northwest to less than 0.5" in the southeast, so not drought busting
by any means, but we`ll take what we can get as ridging looks to
build back in early next week.
86/Martin
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.
/44/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday.
Minimum RH values of 25-35 percent are expected each afternoon
through Thursday before a moistening trend begins on Friday. 20
foot winds should remain below Red Flag criteria. Outdoor burning
remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    82  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  83  56  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  86  55  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      86  55  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      83  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  86  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        83  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION.../44/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion