Gray Cemetery Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

964
FXUS64 KMRX 141729
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
129 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue for the
  rest of the week.
- A system will bring a return of showers and possibly some
  thunderstorms to the region Saturday night through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
A dry N-NW flow pattern continues through the week as a high
amplitude ridge will be over the Plains and MS Valley, while a
trough will be off the Atlantic coastline.
Tonight, like last night, fog is expected to develop in sheltered
valleys and near bodies of water with the clear/calm conditions.
Another day of slightly above normal temperatures can be expected
tomorrow, with highs from the mid 70s in NE TN/SW VA to around 80 in
the southern TN Valley. A backdoor cold front pushes into our NE
sections late Thursday as a high pressure ridge builds east of the
Appalachians. The main impacts of this will only be some lower
dewpoints and cooler overnight lows, mainly in NE TN and SW VA
Thursday night and Friday.
The mid/upper ridge shifts over the area on Friday, then east of the
Appalachians by Saturday. This will bring a warmer and more humid
air mass to the region starting Saturday, with high temps reaching
the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of locations outside the
mountains. Rain chances increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front, along with some weak instability. The ECMWF continues to
depict a deep, negatively tilted trough and coupled jet structure,
suggesting the potential for thunderstorms and possibly
strong/severe storms if we can get adequate low level moisture and
instability. The frontal timing will be a factor in thunerstorm
severity as well, with a later afternoon timing being more favorable
for storms to tap into surface based instability. The HWO will
maintain a low probability wording for hazardous weather. Drier and
notably cooler conditions are expected by next Monday behind the
front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Fog at TRI is again the main concern for the TAFs today. There has
been little change to the pattern and air mass across the region, so
a repeat of last night is likely. The TRI TAF will carry predominant
LIFR conditions for a few hours toward sunrise.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  53  77  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       53  77  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              48  74  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion