Gregg, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

849
FXUS64 KEWX 211105
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
605 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm conditions this weekend into next week.
- Confidence is increasing in rain chances Tuesday through
  Thursday (currently 20-60%).
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
An upper level ridge covers the southwestern quadrant of the US
resulting in west-northwesterly flow over Texas. High pressure
over the northern Gulf coast has the low level flow from the
southeast. The airmass is warm and moist with temperatures in the
middle 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints from the lower 60s to lower
70s. The upper ridge will shift toward the east during this
period. The low level flow will continue from the southeast
reinforcing the warm, moist airmass. There may be enough lift over
the Coastal Plains to generate isolated to scattered showers or
thunderstorms each afternoon today and Monday. Elsewhere the upper
ridge will suppress any convection. High temperatures today will
be about the same as Saturday, and they will increase a couple of
degrees Monday with continued warm advection.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Monday night into Tuesday an upper level low will move out of the
Central Rockies and open into a wave. This will push of ridge
toward the southeast. At the same time a cold front will move
through the Texas Panhandle. Southeasterly low level flow will
continue over our CWA, and rain chances will continue over the
Coastal Plains Tuesday afternoon. However, with the approach of
the front to Central Texas there will be slight chances for
convection over our northern area. Tuesday night the front will
move through Central Texas and Wednesday through our CWA. This
will bring showers and thunderstorms through South-Central Texas.
The best chances will be during the afternoon Wednesday. The front
will stall somewhere near our southern border and low rain chances
will continue Thursday. Friday and Saturday the front will
dissipate and the upper trough will move to the southeasterly
part of the country. This will keep slight chances for showers
and thunderstorms over our CWA mainly during the afternoons.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
Patchy MVFR ceilings are developing across the area but should
scatter around 16Z with all sites returning to VFR for the rest of
the day. Did remove the mention of any ceilings out of DRT due to
model trends and observations. The opportunity for isolated -SHRA
continues this afternoon primarily for locations to the east of the
I-35 corridor.  Light wind this morning will become south to
southeasterly during the day mainly under 12 knots. MVFR ceilings
are likely again tonight into Monday morning with the highest
confidence at SAT/SSF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  97  75  98 /   0  10   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  97  75  98 /   0  10   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  96  74  97 /   0  10   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            72  93  73  94 /   0   0   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  98  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             72  96  73  97 /   0  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  97  73  98 /   0  10   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  95  74  96 /   0  20   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  96  76  97 /  10  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           75  98  76  99 /   0  10   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...27

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion