Grinnell, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

328
FXUS63 KGLD 200842
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread fog and dense fog is ongoing. Dense Fog Advisory in
  effect through mid morning Saturday. Another chance for fog,
  perhaps dense Sunday morning.
- Showers and storms are possible Saturday afternoon across
  eastern Colorado; a stronger storm can`t be ruled out.
  Additional storms are possible overnight Saturday mainly
  across the far eastern counties.
- Above average temperatures will return over the weekend, with
  highs in the mid 80`s on Sat-Sun.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Dense fog is ongoing through a good part of the CWA as of 2am MT;
have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through 15Z for portions of the
area. A continued strong signal for fog was continued to be
seen (which was mentioned last night) with the current
climatologically favored light ENE winds in place and very high
surface to 1km mixing ration difference. The only caveat to
continued fog duration throughout the night and potential early
cancellation of the advisory is that the surface low is
developing some cloud cover which has been steadily increasing
in coverage. If the cloud cover does not play an impact then a
potential expansion of the advisory to the east may be needed.
Any fog is forecast to end by mid morning leading to partly cloudy
skies across the area with lighter winds as a surface develops and
moves across the area. Southern portions of the area may see some
light showers move in thanks to the surface low but confidence
measurable precipitation is around 10-15% at this time due to
drier air being in place between the 850-700mb levels. This
afternoon a subtle 500mb shortwave is forecast to move off of
the Rockies and lead to isolated to scattered showers and
storms currently favored along and west of Dundy to Wallace
county. A stronger storm can`t be ruled out due to mid level
lapse rates around 7-7.5 c/km, MLCAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg and
wind shear of 20-30 knots. Due to the meager forcing think that
severe weather is unlikely but an isolated instance of hail up
to half dollar size can`t be completely ruled out but is
unlikely, confidence in severe weather is less than 10%. These
storms are forecast to develop around 3pm MT and potentially
continue through the evening hours. Additional storms are
possible across Gove, Graham, and eastern Sheridan counties
after 12am CT with the forcing being from the 500mb shortwave
and being on the nose of an 850mb jet. Some guidance does
suggest some elevated instability moving in with some moisture
advection so can`t completely rule out some stronger storms
with hail up to nickel size due to meager lapse rates around
6.5-7 c/km and wind shear around 20-25 knots. Some localized
flooding concerns across eastern Gove county as radar estimates
some locales of 2-3 inches from storms from Friday afternoon and
evening and PWATS increase to around 1.5. Some additional
patchy dense fog may develop across the area as well Sunday
morning. Have went ahead and added the fog mention into the
forecast targeting areas that maintain the favored easterly
component the longest.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Long range guidance continues to suggest that a closed low will
develop over the central-northern Rockies/High Plains early
next week. If this is the case, one would expect active/
dynamic weather. Below average confidence in forecast specifics.
Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. Below
average, in this context, is intended to communicate a further
reduction in confidence associated with /inherent-to/ increased
pattern complexity, e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves
and multi-branched jet/wave interactions, among other factors.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Widespread fog likely overnight and into Saturday morning with
IFR to VLIFR conditions expected to develop at both KGLD and KMCK.
The fog and ceilings will gradually lift through mid to late
Saturday morning with VFR prevailing at both terminals by early
afternoon.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027>029-041-042.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...024

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion