Guild, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

948
FXUS64 KMRX 250626
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
226 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 153 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
-  Scattered showers this morning, scattered thunderstorms this
    afternoon into the evening. Flood risk is very low today, and
    a few storms could contain breezy winds.
-  Friday and Saturday are likely to have scattered light rain
    showers. Low rain chances continue into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
As of this writing the upper trough over the Midwest will spend the
next 36 hours moving into the Ohio Valley region of the country and
then pinching off a weak upper low that will slowly meander through
portions of the Eastern US for the next several days. Closer to home
we`re in another major lull of rainfall early this morning. These
periodic lulls have been great to allow for earlier rains to soak in
and drain off before the next round. A few showers will be
dotting the landscape as the sun rises, but the bulk of the rain
for today will hold off until the afternoon. By then solar
insolation will allow for 700 to 1200J MLCAPE, and guidance
indicates 30 to 35 knots of effective shear will be present.
However lapse rates are poor, generally below the 6C/km threshold.
With how yesterday played out in terms of struggling updrafts,
would expect something similar even with more available CAPE to
keep storms sub-severe.
As far as flooding potential, the concerns from early this week have
really diminished as we`ve had several rounds of rains separated by
long lulls. The ground in the region has slowly saturated, but even
the wettest still require a couple inches of rainfall to induce
flood issues, and the HREF PMM doesn`t provide that much rainfall
much anywhere. With scattered convection in the afternoon, it would
require a couple of thunderstorms to drop rain over a vulnerable
location to cause any issues.
Beyond today, light rain will be possible, especially over portions
of northeastern Tennessee into southwestern Virginia on Friday and
Saturday thanks to instability provided by the nearby upper trough.
Flood risk to remain very low. Low chances of diurnal activity to
continue into next week. Temperatures are generally flat through the
period between weak troughing and weak ridging in the Eastern US,
with perhaps a nod towards slightly cooler weather late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Aviation conditions will be variable for the rest of the night and
morning hours due to recent showers and storms, along with
development of patchy fog. CHA has dropped to IFR with improvements
possible over the next couple of hours. There has been a break in
shower and thunderstorm activity with more approaching from the
west. Accordingly, all other sites are forecast to drop to MVFR or
less by sunrise. Improvements back to VFR are forecast by early
afternoon with some break in showers and storms before more develop.
Off and on MVFR will be possible but with most places likely VFR
late in the afternoon and into the evening. Southerly to
southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kts are forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  66  82  64 /  60  30  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  79  66  79  63 /  70  50  40  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  64  79  62 /  70  40  30  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  64  78  61 /  80  40  50  50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion