Gulf, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

003
FXUS62 KRAH 120634
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
233 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend, although a
northeasterly wind flow and passage of an upper level trough into
the region will bring periods of clouds each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Thursday...
The morning stratus over eastern sections continues to slowly but
steadily lift this afternoon with patchy breaks in the cloud deck,
as the area of higher PW over E NC pushes southward and drier air
aloft mixes into and erodes the lower clouds, although with daytime
mixing, at least partial cloud cover should linger E of Hwy 1 into
the evening. With the expected downturn in PW and dry air aloft
noted on GOES layer WV imagery, clouds should be few near and after
midnight with a lower risk of drizzle or patchy light rain compared
to previous nights. However, the limited clouds late and a slow
uptick in surface dewpoints combined with very light winds and
stagnant near-surface air overnight should facilitate radiational
cooling overnight, favoring development of areas of fog and shallow
stratus. This should be most prevalent across the N and E CWA which
has seen some light precip over the last few days and where the
ground is a bit more damp, a scenario generally agreed upon by LAV
guidance, the HREF mean, and the experimental REFS. Fog may be
briefly dense in some spots in the N CWA, according to the HREF.
Lows should be slightly lower than last night, mostly in the upper
50s to lower 60s. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
High pressure will remain nearly stationary across the northeastern
United States with a ridge continuing to extend southwest into the
Carolinas. Similar to the last few days, low level flow will remain
out of the north, and cannot rule out mostly cloudy skies at the
beginning of the day, but unlike the last few days, clouds should
scatter out quickly during the morning allowing for a mostly sunny
afternoon. Highs will still be slightly below normal, but a couple
degrees warmer than today, ranging from the upper 70s to the mid
80s. The lack of cloud cover will allow more radiational cooling to
occur, and all locations should drop into the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 AM Friday...
* Near-normal temperatures likely, with the potential for isolated
  to scattered showers possible in the east midweek.
Surface ridging and high pressure should generally continue to
dominate over central North Carolina for much of the long term
period. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday should be near to slightly
above normal. This equates to maximum temperatures reaching the low-
to-mid 80s each afternoon and lows each night in the upper 50s to
low 60s. A dry backdoor cold front looks to move through the region
Monday with surface high pressure building back in behind it. This
should allow temperatures to drop back into the mid 70s to low 80s
each afternoon Tuesday though Thursday. The rain forecast for
Tuesday through Thursday has trended somewhat wetter in the east, as
models and their ensembles have started coming into better agreement
of a coastal system potentially bringing isolated to scattered
showers into the eastern regions of the CWA. However, it is still
unclear where the system will form and how far inland rain will be
able to spread.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...
24 Hour TAF Period: Surface high pressure extending into the region
from the north and NE low-level flow will result in a threat for sub-
VFR visibilities from fog overnight across central NC, as winds are
very light to calm and skies are mostly clear. Some scattered to
broken clouds around 6-10 kft continue across the far NW and far
east, but they are beginning to diminish and move out of the area.
Thus MVFR to IFR to LIFR visibilities from fog will be possible at
any of the TAF sites into early morning, with the best chance during
the usual 09z-13z timeframe. The greatest confidence is at KRDU
according to guidance and latest observational trends, which depict
an area of fog currently over the far NE Piedmont (including KHNZ,
KLHZ and KTDF) moving south over the next few hours. This is
followed by KFAY/KRWI, which guidance generally depicts to be on the
edge of the densest fog, and lastly INT/GSO. Model soundings and
current observations indicate this will be more of a fog threat vs
low stratus, but some IFR/LIFR ceilings still can`t be ruled out.
Any fog will lift and dissipate by mid-morning, with VFR conditions
prevailing the rest of the day.
Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions are expected into early next week.
Ridges of high pressure extending in from the north will dominate at
the surface, although a few more clouds and gusty winds are possible
late Fri with passage of an upper level trough into the area. A
coastal system may bring scattered showers early next week, best
chance in the east, but models differ and it is too early to specify
details at this time.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Danco/BSD/Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion