Hack Lake Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

298
FXUS63 KDLH 120545
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1245 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds will occur today with on and off rain showers
  through the day.
- Seasonable temps and dry conditions early to mid this week
  give way to higher, widespread rain chances late this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Clear skies have been occurring across the vast majority of the CWA
today as a Hudson Bay high pressure remains in control of the
pattern. While conditions have overall been benign today, the one
concern has been near-critical fire weather conditions. Southerly
flow has provided WAA into the Northland, which when combined with
the dry air associated with the Hudson Bay high has reduced min RH
this afternoon into the 25-30% range. In addition to the dry
conditions, southerly winds have been gusty, reaching 20-25 mph at
times. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for Cass and
Crow Wing Counties until 01z this evening due to near-critical fire
weather conditions.
A strong southerly LLJ is expected to develop this evening into
tonight as a deep trough located over the western CONUS begins to
move to the east and the Hudson Bay high slowly propagates east.
850mb winds are forecast to increase in excess of 50 knots in north-
central MN tonight, with these strong winds aloft at 850mb
expanding across most of the CWA through the day Sunday. Model
soundings show that even minimal diurnal mixing will result in
strong winds on Sunday, with a 70% chance for gusts exceeding 30
mph for large portions of the CWA and a 40% chance for
localized wind gusts greater than 35 mph on Sunday afternoon.
In addition to the breezy winds, this approaching trough will bring
widespread on and off rain showers through the day Sunday. CAMs
strongly suggest the potential for radar reflectivities arriving as
early as later this evening. However, with a sizable amount of
dry air in the low-levels, this initial round of precip will
likely fall as virga. However, rain chances increase heading
into Sunday as the strong LLJ advects moisture into the CWA
tonight and the showers aloft help moisten the lower levels.
Total rainfall amounts tonight into Monday morning will
generally be in the 0.1-0.3" range. However, locally higher
amounts will be possible near the North Shore terrain ridge as
strong southeast winds provide some orographic enhancement.
Expect rain to end from west to east across the CWA late Sunday
evening into Monday morning as a cold front sweeps through.
Following the cold front, cooler temps filter into the area on
Monday into Tuesday with a drier airmass. High temps will be
noticeably cooler, especially on Tuesday, in the 50s. Overnight lows
will also be cool, with widespread sub-freezing temps possible for
large portions of the area early this upcoming week.
A ridge is strongly favored to build around midweek, resulting in
high temps returning back to the mid 50s to low 60s for the latter
half of the week. This building ridge will keep precipitation
chances minimal through Wednesday. The next best chance for
widespread rain arrives on Thursday into Friday as another low
pressure moves into the Upper Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Gusty southeast winds to 25 knots persist through the rest of
tonight and increase around sunrise today. Expect a quick
increase to gusts of 35 knots from 12-14Z today, especially
first in north-central Minnesota. The gusts are due to a low-
level jet of strong southerly winds just off the surface and is
also creating the ongoing low-level wind shear at all Northland
terminals. Rain showers mainly again in north-central Minnesota
this morning give way to a brief downturn in shower activity
around mid-day today before another surge of rain showers builds
in from the south early afternoon today and lifts northeastward
into the evening hours today. Expect a wind shift to
southwesterly around 03-06Z late this evening and another wind
shift to westerly around 06-09Z Sunday night as a cold front
moves through the area.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Northeast winds occurring this afternoon near the Twin Ports
have resulted in building waves to around 2 feet. With northeast
winds expected to continue this evening, a Small Craft Advisory
was issued for waves building to around 4 feet late this
afternoon into the evening.
Winds are expected to shift to the southeast tonight and increase as
low pressure moves towards western Lake Superior. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect through Sunday into early Monday due to
these breezy southeast winds and building waves. On and off rain
showers are forecast tomorrow as this low pressure moves through the
Upper Midwest and a cold front sweeps through on Sunday night into
early Monday morning. Expect winds to shift from southeast to west-
northwest following the cold front.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 AM CDT
     Monday for LSZ121-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for LSZ141-144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
     Monday for LSZ142-143.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Unruh

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion