Hackett School Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

222
FXUS61 KCAR 141842
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
242 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight,
then pushes south into the Gulf of Maine into Wednesday. High
pressure builds in from the west through Friday night. A warm front
lifts to the north Saturday, as the high slides offshore through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the Noreaster to our south continues to move east offshore,
winds and seas along the coast are subsiding. Will continue the
high surf advisory through 8 PM tonight as seas 4 to 7 ft are
still expected to be crashing into the coastline along with a
threat for rip currents.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front will pass through our area tonight,
bringing a few isolated showers through the region. The
presentation of showers on radar will likely look better than
the precipitation actually reaching the ground as low-level dry
air is expected to result in evaporation. Behind the cold front,
N-NW winds will pick up in response to a tightening pressure
gradient. The elevated winds and increasing clouds should
prevent fog from developing in most areas aside from possibly
areas further south where winds will pick up later and skies
will be a bit clearer.
On Wednesday, an upper-level low begins to dive south through
eastern Maine bringing anomalously cool air aloft. As upper-
level energy rotates around the upper-low this should aid in the
development of some isolated convective showers. Rain showers
are most likely but cannot rule out graupel mixing in if there
is more robust convection. Some snow may also mix in at the
higher elevations. Winds will be blustery Wednesday with gusts
20-30 mph. Overnight Wednesday, gusty winds and showers will
continue as the upper-low moves south over the area. Snow
showers are also possible Wednesday night but are unlikely to
produce any accumulation. How cold temperatures drop will be key
as the NBM has much of northern Maine getting to or dipping
below 32 but other models show warmer solutions including the
NAM which is generally a colder solution. It is possible the NBM
could be underdoing the mixing from the elevated winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed low slowly tracks southeast from the Gulf of Maine Thursday
and Thursday night. Any showers over eastern zones should tapper off
from NE to SE by late Thursday night. There should be gusty NW winds
Thursday with gusts up to 25-35mph Thursday and 20-30mph Thursday
night. Highs on Thursday should be around 5 degrees below normal and
lows Thursday night near normal.
Deep layered ridging builds in on Friday, it should be dry with
decreasing cloud cover as a result. Highs on Friday should be near
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep layered ridging builds in Friday night-Saturday night so it
should be dry - with the possible exception of maybe a passing
shower on Saturday across the North as the surface warm front passes.
The axis of the deep layered ridge exits to the east on Sunday,
allowing for an increase in cloud cover. Depending on exactly how
fast it moves to the east, cannot completely rule out some showers
over far western zones late in the day.
The region is under SW flow aloft Sunday night, then S-SE flow aloft
on Monday as a closed low negatively tilts as it approaches from the
west. Models differ on the timing of when and where this system
becomes negatively tilted, and hence when the associated
precipitation moves into the area. The majority of ensembles delay
precipitation until Monday, so have limited pops Sunday night to
chance, with likely pops on Monday.
The models then continue to differ on the timing/location of the
closed low Monday night and Tuesday - this will impact the timing of
the end of any precipitation. For now have likely pops mainly for
Monday evening then chance pops into Tuesday.
Temperatures should be near normal Thursday night, then above normal
Friday-Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through Wednesday but cigs will approach MVFR at
all terminals late tonight and tomorrow morning. Chance of MVFR
about 40 % for northern terminals and 20 % for southern
terminals. Isolated showers also possible. Winds light and
variable through this evening will increase to 10 to 15 kts with
gusts 20-25 kts by Wednesday afternoon.
VFR/MVFR early Wednesday night for northern terminals, becoming
MVFR late. VFR for southern terminals. NNW winds 10 to 15 kts
with gusts 20 to 25 kts. Scattered showers also possible,
especially for northern terminals.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday...MVFR or lower probable at eastern terminals and possible
at southern terminals. NW winds G20-30KT likely.
Thursday night through Saturday night...Becoming VFR throughout
Thursday night. NW winds G20-30KT probable Thursday night, then NW-N
winds G15-25KT possible on Friday.
Sunday...Most likely VFR, with a very low chance of MVFR conditions
late at far western terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds have subsided below small craft advisory
criteria this afternoon but seas remain elevated at 6 to 8 ft.
Seas are expected to continue to decrease through Wednesday
morning and remain just above small craft advisory criteria at 4
to 6 ft through Wednesday night. Light winds tonight will
increase through Wednesday night to 20 to 30 kts by Thursday
morning. Sea surface water temperature are in the 53-55F range
from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line
including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot bays.
SHORT TERM: There is a 50 percent chance for Gale gusts over the
coastal ocean waters Thursday and Thursday night, so in
collaboration with GYX, have issued a gale watch during this time
frame. SCA conditions are likely with a small chance of gale gusts
on the intra-coastal waters. At this time, the chances for gales on
the intra-coastal waters is to small to mention in the HWO.
All waters should see SCA conditions on Friday, and possibly into
Friday night on the coastal ocean waters. The weekend should feature
sub-SCA conditions on all waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...SM
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...SM/PM
Marine...SM/PM

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion