Haig Point Cemetery, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

940
FXUS62 KCHS 011738
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
138 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region into Sunday. A warm
front will lift north through the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will build in from the north through tonight. Drier
air will advect in with PWats expected to drop below an inch
over most locations by daybreak. Some wind could linger
overnight but otherwise expect dry and quiet conditions through
the remainder of the period. Low temperatures will range from
the mid/upper 50s inland to low/mid 60s closer to the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Subtle upper-level troughing left in the wake of both Hurricanes
Humberto and Imelda will linger across the Southeast U.S. into
Saturday as weak/pseudo Rex configuration evolves over the eastern
CONUS. Surface high pressure centered over New England looks to
maintain the wedge across the Carolinas and Georgia with some
enhancement likely as an upper-level anticyclone forms over the Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic helping to reinforce the confluent flow
across the Northeast States. This will keep seasonable temperatures
in place through the rest of the week. An enhanced pressure gradient
associated with the wedge itself will keep breezy conditions mostly
confined to the beaches where east to northeast winds will persist.
Precipitation wise, models are likely struggling with resolving any
marine-based shower activity moving onshore in the east/northeast
low-level flow as they typically overdevelop the usual closed-cell
stratocumulus field associated with these type of flow regimes. This
is especially apparent in the 01/12z GFS 3-6 hr QPF fields where
transient and splotchy patterns are observed over the Atlantic
offshore waters. There will likely be some degree of shower
activity, but there is low confidence in its timing and coverage.
Guidance does show impulses moving across portions of Florida and
interacting with an old frontal boundary by Saturday. This may help
enhance rain chances to the south with the local area positioned
along the far northern fringes of this area of enhanced rainfall,
especially over Southeast Georgia. Given the expected low-level flow
regime and the relatively dry airmass in place with the inland
wedge, the best rain chances will remain confined to the coastal
counties and beaches with chances increasing through the weekend due
to expanding activity over the Florida peninsula.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The region will become positioned between an upper level high to the
east and northeast with an upper low over the northwest Gulf. The
coastal trough offshore will gradually move north as a warm front
early in the week. The increasingly moist flow atop the inland wedge
followed by the warm front will support an increasing risk for
showers/tstms, some of which could become locally heavy as PWATs
surge to near 2". The model QPF footprint remains highest along
Georgia coast where some flooding of mainly low-lying and poor
drainage areas could occur, especially should rains fall during the
already elevated high tides.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR is expected at all terminals through 18z Thursday. Gusty
northeast winds this afternoon will somewhat subside overnight, but
winds are expected to ramp back up on Thursday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns.
The risk for restrictions from showers/tstms will increase this
weekend into early next week for all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Elevated northeast winds will persist, with a
good surge expected overnight as strong high pressure builds
from the north. Winds should peak in the 20-25 knot range, with
gusts up to around 30 kt. Seas will build to around 5-8 feet in
the nearshore waters by daybreak, and 8-10 feet beyond in the
outer Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for all waters outside of the Charleston Harbor where gusts
should remain shy of criteria.
Thursday through Monday: The pressure gradient is forecast to pinch
even more Thursday into Thursday night as the inland wedge
strengthens. This should push northeast winds into the 25-30 kt
range with frequent gusts 35-40 kt. A Gale Watch has been posted for
all legs with the exception of the Charleston Habor from Thursday
afternoon through roughly daybreak Friday. The gradient looks to
relax slightly Friday and into the weekend as the coastal trough
offshore draws a bit closer. This should still keep hazardous
conditions in place, but winds should be more solidly in the Small
Craft Advisory range. Seas will peak 6-9 ft nearshore waters and 9-
11 ft offshore waters Thursday night before diminishing over the
weekend, but still above 6 ft
Rip Currents/High Surf: The high rip current risk has been extended
into Friday due to lingering swells and stiff winds. Surf reports
and webcams indicate breaking waves have dropped below High Surf
Advisory criteria of 5 ft. However, as sea build Thursday into
Thursday night due a tightening pressure gradient, NWPS breaking
wave guidance shows breaking waves in the surf zone will reach 4-7
ft once again. The High Surf Advisory has been maintained through
early Saturday morning as a result.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Given latest tidal trends, it appears the Charleston Harbor
tide gauge will stay shy of the 7 ft MLLW minor flooding
threshold with the afternoon high tide, so no Coastal Flood
Advisory has been issued.
As astronomical tides increase this week, the risk for minor
coastal flooding will increase for Charleston and Coastal
Colleton Counties during the afternoon high tide cycles. A
Coastal Flood Advisory could eventually be needed for Thursday
afternoon.
Heading into this weekend and early next week, astronomical tides
will increase due to the upcoming Full Moon (Oct 7) and Perigee (Oct
8). This in combination with the anticipation of continued
northeasterly flow will cause the possibility of coastal flooding to
become more likely along the entire coastline, including both
Downtown Charleston and Fort Pulaski. Saltwater inundation could
then occur during both the morning and evening high tide cycles
during this time. Although there is considerable uncertainty this
far out, persistent favorable winds have the potential to produce up
to major coastal flooding.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for SCZ048>051.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ350-352-
     354-374.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for AMZ350-352-354-374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion