Hall Cemetery, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

822
FXUS61 KOKX 280643
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
243 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks out to sea today. A weak cold front passes
tonight, followed by another cold frontal passage Tuesday. High
pres then builds into the region through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Low pres was analyzed about 170 mi S of Montauk at 2am EDT. The
low will continue to track out to sea, taking the rain with it
by 12Z per the model consensus. The rain has been lgt, in many
cases falling out of a 10k ft deck.
Decreasing clouds today with increasing subsidence and a drier
airmass building in. Lgt flow will allow for sea breezes at the
coast by aftn.
High temps well abv normal, with record highs fcst at BDR and
ISP. LGA will be close as well.
The NBM was followed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Subtropical high clouds possible especially late keeping things
from being skc all ngt. Background wind field will be lgt, but
a shallow cold fropa produces a wind shift where winds are not
calm. Some patchy fog, especially in the valleys, possible.
Dry on Mon with high clouds likely filtering the sunshine a
bit. Still warm but a NE flow will develop keeping temps
blw records. The winds, albeit lgt, will veer thru the day and
will likely become sea breeze dominant at the coasts.
Lgt and vrb winds Mon ngt with a high ovc again possible.
The NBM was followed.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The fcst thinking remains unchanged and the NBM was used.
A 1030s Canadian high will build SE after a dry cold frontal
passage Tue. At first, there will be solid NE flow locked in
with the center of the high over Ontario/Quebec and Hurricane
Humberto passing well to the SE over the open Atlantic. Winds
could gust to 25-30 mph on Wed, all associated strictly with the
pressure gradient between the two systems and not with an
expanding core of winds with the hurricane as was the case with
Erin back in August. As the high reaches the area by the end of
the week, winds will go light.
Above normal temps Tue/Tue night will fall to near normal on
Wed, and a few degrees below normal on Thu with highs only in
the 60s. Lows Thu night could be some of the coolest this far
this season, with lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s well inland
and near 50 in NYC. (At Central Park, the fcst high of 64 on Thu
would be the coolest since June 15th, and the fcst low of 51
Thu night the coolest since June 1st). Temps should then rebound
to near normal on Fri and a few degrees above normal on Sat.
For specific observational and forecast information regarding
Humberto and newly formed Tropical Depression Nine, see the
latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure passes southeast of the terminals through early
Sunday morning. A weakening cold front approaches late Sunday
and moves through Sunday night.
Mainly VFR in SHRA/-RA. MVFR is possible at coastal terminals
after about 08Z through daybreak, but confidence low in this
outcome. SHRA/-RA diminish around or just after daybreak on
Sunday.
Light and variable winds or light NE through late tonight.
Winds will then become SW/WSW at less than 10 kt on Sunday. A
late morning/afternoon seabreeze is probable at the coastal
terminals.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR possible early Sunday in mainly light rain. Timing of sea
breeze wind shift may be +/- an hour in the TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Afternoon -Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NE gusts around 20-25 kt possible.
highest wind gusts will be at the coastal terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas blw sca lvls thru Mon, then increasing swell
produces SCA seas on the ocean Mon ngt thru Thu. Increasing NE
winds due to high pres to the N and low pres over the Atlc may
produce SCA lvl winds all waters Wed and Thu.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected this week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a continuous NE flow during mid week along with large
swells from Humberto from Tue through Thu, total water levels
and surf will both be on the increase. Coastal flooding appears
unlikely as we will be in between moon phases, but high surf,
dangerous rip currents, and some minor oceanfront beach
flooding/erosion may be possible Wed/Thu.
There is a low rip current risk today with waves around 2 ft
and light winds.
The last regular surf zone forecast for the season was issued
today. Forecasts will resume on Thursday, May 21, 2026, before
the next Memorial Day weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC/BG
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion