458 FXUS62 KMFL 200456 AFDMFLArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1256 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An overall pleasant day is expected today as north-northeast surface flow prevails and reinforces the drier air mass currently in place. PWATs were observed as 1.88 inches on the 00Z sounding last evening, and global models depict potentially even lower values (1.2-1.4 inches) across interior South Florida. Mainly sunny and dry conditions should prevail overall today, although a few coastal showers may be possible during the morning hours today, and a couple isolated showers or storms may develop towards the early evening hours.
A little more moisture is able to work into the area from the south heading into Sunday afternoon, which may provide enough juice for slightly higher coverage of showers and storms on Sunday afternoon, although rain chances will still remain below average in the 30-40% range. Most of the day should be mostly sunny with showers and storms bubbling up during the mid-afternoon time period mainly across inland areas as surface flow veers more easterly. Minimal impacts expected to metro areas besides slightly higher cloud cover during the afternoon and evening compared to the morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An upper level trough near the Great Lakes is forecast to slowly extend southward towards the southeastern US early next week. By mid to late week, the trough transitions into a cutoff low across the central US where it will slowly drift towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas. This could lead to a weak boundary stalled across central Florida and potentially facilitate additional moisture across South Florida through the week. PWATs will rise back into the 2.0-2.2 inch range by Monday afternoon which is more typical for this time of year. East-northeast flow will prevail across South Florida through this time period which will give the east coast breeze the upper hand in dominating convective initiation, and will keep the area of maximum rain chances across interior and Southwest Florida each afternoon. Partly sunny conditions prevail during the morning hours with shower and thunderstorm development expected across interior areas during the each afternoon as sea breezes push inland and we reach maximum daytime heating. Slightly drier air might move into the region towards the end of the week as the boundary has the potential to pass south of the area. This could drop rain chances for Friday into the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures through the period will reach the lower 90s with overnight lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. A few coastal showers will be possible early this morning, but very low chances for thunderstorms this afternoon so no mention of thunder. Winds increase out of the NE after 15z and will range between 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon. At KAPF, winds may become more northerly Saturday afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.
&&
.MARINE... Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A moderate east-northeasterly breeze will continue today. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 3 feet while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1 to 2 feet. Despite lower rain chances this weekend, a few showers and storms may develop across local waters. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds will be possible near the most robust shower and thunderstorm activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 90 78 89 / 20 40 30 60 West Kendall 76 90 77 88 / 20 40 30 60 Opa-Locka 77 91 78 90 / 20 40 30 60 Homestead 76 88 78 88 / 20 40 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 89 78 88 / 20 30 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 78 90 79 89 / 20 30 20 50 Pembroke Pines 77 92 78 91 / 20 40 30 60 West Palm Beach 76 89 78 89 / 10 30 20 50 Boca Raton 76 91 78 90 / 20 30 20 50 Naples 75 92 76 91 / 10 20 10 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...99
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion