Hametown, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

864
FXUS61 KCTP 191100
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
700 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* The last several days of this summer of 2025 will feature
  above average daytime temperatures with no rainfall through
  the weekend
* Remaining warmer than normal into late September with some
  much needed/light rainfall possible at times next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface cold front extended from just north of KBGM to KBFD and
KCLE at 08Z with an area of sct-bkn strato cu along and just in
its wake.
This boundary will drift slowly to the south through the state
today with very little fanfare. Along and just to the south of
the front will be an approx 100 NM wide band of 1-1.25 inch PWAT
air with sfc dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s across
Central and Southern PA. By early this evening, the initial
East/West orientation of the front will take on more of a
backdoor look, stretching from NE Ohio to SE PA. To its north,
PWATs will drop to between 0.5-0.7 of an inch with just some
scattered pancake strato cu.
Max temps this afternoon will vary from the low to mid 70s
across the Northern Tier of PA to the upper 80s in the Scent
Valleys. A few readings of 90-92F are likely across Franklin
County where the combination of orographic descent and
downsloping just south of the cfront from the top of the shallow
cooler airmass via a 10-15 kt northerly wind.
High temp departures will be near normal over our far NE zones
and +12-14 over the southern half of PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Clear/cool/chilly conditions for tonight/Saturday morning with
valley fog. We leaned lower vs. NBM for minT with some upper 30s
likely in the usual northern tier cold spots.
Cooler trend/not as warm across the board for daytime highs on
Saturday (-1 to -5F north, -5 to -10F south) to start the last
weekend of astronomical summer. There will be plenty of sun,
but the wind from the east will deliver cooler air vs. Friday.
Low clouds are forecast to develop later Saturday night into
early Sunday morning in association with an east to southeast
wind. The clouds will result in a milder minT trend with fcst
lows about +10F warmer across the NW mtns vs. Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heading into next week, high pressure will begin to lose its
grip on the region as an upper trough tries to disrupt the
persistent ridge of high pressure aloft. Still plenty of
uncertainty on how much, if any, precipitation will get into
Pennsylvania, but southerly flow ahead of the approaching system
will support continued warmer than average temperatures for the
start of Astronomical fall.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The forecast area will see another solid VFR day today with
generally clear skies and light west to southwest winds under
high pressure.
KBFD is wobbling around LIFR / IFR this morning as both ceilings
and visibilities bounce up and down. Expect this to dissipate
rather quickly this morning. Limited fog formation is expected
again overnight as short term, high-res moisture models are
pretty much nil on low level moisture overnight.
Outlook...
Sat...VFR.
Sat Night-Sun...Sub-VFR low clouds possible.
Mon-Tue...Rain showers possible; best odds over the NW 1/2 of
the airspace.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Astronomical fall officially begins with the autumnal equinox
on Monday, September 22, 2025 @ 2:19 p.m. EDT. The Autumn 2025
season will last 89 days, 20 hours, and 43 minutes. Daylight
saving time will end just after Halloween with clocks falling
back at 2 a.m. Sunday, November 2, 2025.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
AVIATION...Tyburski
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion