Hamilton Reservoir Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

427
FXUS65 KGJT 150539
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1139 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Flood Watch remains in effect for the southern San Juans
  and adjacent valleys through this evening. Flood waters are
  receding.
- Strong to severe storms develop in southwest/south central
  Colorado tomorrow afternoon.
- Unsettled weather continues for much of the week as another
  system moves in from the west bringing more showers and storms
  to eastern Utah and western Colorado.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Extended the flood warning for the San Juan through midnight as
the drop has stalled similar to event a few days ago. The river
is still forecast to drop under flood stage during the early
morning hours and remain near bankfull before a steady drop
begins early Thursday. Please continue to heed local closures
even though water levels are slowly receding.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 403 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Outside of some isolated to scattered showers and storms that
continue into the evening hours, our next concern is a frontal
passage associated with low pressure center currently located
along the central California coast. Ahead of the front, a
strengthening gradient of southwesterly flow will lead to breezy
conditions with wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph. Convection
develops along moisture gradients through the forecast area as
drier air moves in from the west.
The most notable region for convection is southwest/south
central Colorado where PWATs remain around 200% of normal
allowing for local maxima in CAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg. The
moisture, instability, and lift will combine with plentiful
shear well over 50 knots. Strong to severe storms are possible,
mainly for La Plata, Archuleta and Hinsdale counties with
damaging wind, large hail, and heavy rainfall being the main
threats. With saturated soils in place, localized flash flooding
is likely under heavy rainfall rates. If storms track over the
San Juan River, a resurgence of minor river flooding cannot be
ruled out. The CAMs have been very consistent with this feature
resulting in higher confidence in localized impacts form strong
to severe storms in this area. Stay weather aware!
A few inches of accumulating snow is likely over 10,000 feet
for the eastern Uinta mountains tonight into tomorrow morning.
Other high peaks in the area will also see a dusting of snow
tonight. Impacts remain limited to the highest elevations but we
may see some of our highest accumulations of the season thus
far.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
On Thursday, a low pressure system will be centered near the
northwest portion of our CWA. The lifting mechanisms associated
with the passage of this system, such as PVA, diffluence aloft,
and a cold front, will have mostly moved out of our CWA.
Additionally, drier air will be moving in. So, through the day
Thursday PoPs gradually decrease, but in the morning scattered
showers are possible north of I-70 where the last bit of
moisture lingers and the final significant swath of vorticity
from the low pressure system moves through. By Thursday evening
any precipitation should clear.
After the low pressure system passes, a pattern shift will
bring dry weather through the weekend. A shift to northwesterly
flow behind the cold front will bring cooler air and drop
temperatures. Daytime highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
before gradually warming over the weekend. Overnight lows will
be seasonable, but cooler than they have been as drier air
reduces nighttime cloud cover. A drop to seasonable overnight
temperatures means reaching near or below freezing for our
higher altitude areas, potentially including mountain valleys.
Active weather may return early next week, but confidence on
this is currently low.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions remain in place as some mid to high level clouds
drift overhead while radar is showing some very isolated
showers over the northern valleys and San Juans. This showery
activity will continue overnight ahead of the next system
approaching from the west. As the system approaches, some gusty
southwesterly winds are expected in the afternoon for most TAF
sites along with some isolated showers, maybe a quick
thunderstorm. KTEX and KDRO will have the best chances to see
storms so included PROB30 for those storms and PROB30 groups for
many other TAF sites to account for showery activity. Despite
the precip, widespread VFR conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ019-022-023.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion