Hampton Cemetery Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

313
FXUS64 KTSA 131713
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- Unseasonably warm temps and dry weather through much of the
   week
- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday and continue through Saturday
   before a cold front pushes east of the region by Sunday.
   Severe weather potential may develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Widespread light rain ongoing across portions of northeast Oklahoma
will gradually wane in coverage and focus more northward into the
evening hours. Mid level heights will begin to rise marking the
advance of the building ridge aloft and resultant dry and warm
weather.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Strong ridging aloft will dominate the mid week weather with
unseasonably warm temps and dry weather prevailing.
The pattern will break down by mid week with a strong wave across
the northern Plains pushing a weak cold front into the region late
Friday into Friday night. Showers and storms will likely develop in
advance of the front primarily Friday night into early Saturday.
Moisture return may initially be a limiting factor in storm
intensity, but with time instability should improve to support a few
strong storms in or near the region overnight Friday. The frontal
boundary is likely to stall by early Saturday as another wave
approaches within the larger scale troughing through the central
CONUS. Sfc low deepens northwest of the region by Saturday morning
and quickly moves eastward through the day.
The associated cold front is forecast to clear the forecast area
Saturday night into early Sunday. Moisture return will have improved
ahead of this second frontal surge and resultant instability will be
more likely to support a severe weather risk.
The prefrontal veered flow does raise uncertainties on the primary
storm initiation zone as it may develop more east of the actual
frontal zone. This timing remains the largest uncertainty and will
be refined through upcoming forecasts.
Cooler temps, at least closer to seasonal normals, are forecast once
the cold front passes.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Light shower activity will persist across NE OK and into far NW AR
through much of the afternoon. Maintained -SHRA at BVO, TUL, and
RVS through at least 21z, but may linger at BVO through 00z or
just beyond. Left the mention of -SHRA out of XNA, FYV, and ROG
TAFs for now, as dry air aloft may prevent most of the rain from
reaching the ground at these terminals. However, will add to the
TAFs if obs at these sites start reporting light rain. Otherwise,
BKN-OVC mid/high clouds will persist through the remainder of the
TAF period and VFR will prevail with light east/southeast winds.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  87  64  86 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   66  87  63  86 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   63  87  60  88 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   61  86  60  84 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   61  85  58  84 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   62  82  59  81 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   66  87  63  85 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   65  84  62  84 /  10  10   0   0
F10   64  87  61  86 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   62  86  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion