Hardwood Trail Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

446
FXUS61 KCTP 131931
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
331 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Periods of light rain and drizzle for this afternoon and
  early tonight, mainly across the eastern half of the CWA
* High pressure will build Southeast from the Upper Great Lakes
  with cooler and dry weather is in store for the rest of the
  week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
Northern center of slow moving and gradually weakening surface
low pressure was located about 100 km east of KOXB at 15Z while
a compact upper vort center was dropping swd from the Laurel
Highlands to help maintain/consolidate the mean 500 mb trough
along the eastern Seaboard.
Several bands of generally light rain/drizzle were spiraling WWD
to the North and West of the aforementioned sfc low.
Atlantic moisture will continue to be thrown back into PA on
the flow around the complex sfc low off the coast. This will
cause more rain for eastern and central PA.
Additional rainfall amounts late this afternoon and tonight
will be generally less than one tenth of an inch, but a few
locations across the Susquehanna Valley and points to the east
could receive another one to 2 tenths of an inch.
Very little rain, if any, will fall west of Route 219.
The rain and clouds and cool/damming flow will keep the temps
below normal today over all but the NWrn 3 counties. Warren
should end up 5F above normal, while York will be about 10F
cooler than normal. Much of the CWA will be 10F colder than
Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
5H heights rise tonight, signaling the end of the rain. The
clouds and a little drizzle do last until close to sunrise,
though. Breaks in the clouds will work in from the west
concurrently with an erosion of the cloud deck from mixing. By
the end of the day, even the eastern counties will see a good
deal of clearing. Temps do stay mild (5-10F > normals) tonight
under the clouds. The increasing sunshine will then help us
climb back to temps seen on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Based on the latest HREF and its members, POPs will be nil
across the region Tuesday night into Wed as the cold front
pushing SE through the region will be moisture starved.
Cooler and very dry air (with PWAT values AOB 0.7 of an inch)
will advect into the region behind the cold front for the
second half of this week. The center of the large 1026 mb sfc
high will drift slowly SE from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Carolina Coast by the end of the week.
The dryness will peak on Thursday with sfc dewpoints in the 35
to 40 deg F range on Wednesday, then settling into the range of
25-35F Thursday aftn.
The wind could be gusty enough (20-25 mph) to create some
concern for our fire-weather sensitive partners Wednesday and
especially on Thursday with the subsiding branch (Left Rear
Quadrant) of a 90 KT upper jet moving across the state.
It will also be dry/clear enough to cause frost/freeze
conditions for the SE (where the Official Growing Season still
continues), mainly on Friday morning.
Temps will rebound to 65-75F maxes on Saturday thanks to the
srly flow kicking in on the backside of the sfc high (and
beneath the crest of an upper level ridge over the Eastern
States). Sat night will feature thickening clouds with a return
of rain to the NW mtns as strong and slightly Neg Tilt
mid/upper level trough with MDT to STG large scale lift moves
across the Glakes and into the Mid Atlantic Region by 00Z
Monday.
12Z multi-model consensus shows a cloudy and showery
Sunday/Sunday evening with periods of showers and maybe even a
rumble of thunder Sunday afternoon as a few to several hour
period of MDT to Strong deep- layer shear and UVVEL accompanies
the sharp low to mid level cold front and period of strongest
upper level divergence - just ahead of the axis of the negative
tilt trough.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread MVFR will be seen throughout the Central Valleys and
Susquehanna region through this afternoon, while IFR Cigs will
hold tough across the higher terrain of the North and West as a
result of moist upslope flow and an arc of light rain rotating
westward across those parts of the state.
Cigs will likely drop by several hundred feet tonight with
mainly IFR stratus, patchy drizzle and ridgetop shrouding fog.
More in the way of improvement is expected on Tuesday, as the
coastal storm starts to move east of our area.
Outlook...
Tue...A little less breezy as the wind switches to North and
skies begin to clear.
Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR and becoming breezy.
Thu...VFR, still breezy.
Fri...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion