Harrisonburg, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

953
FXUS61 KLWX 100133
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
933 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build to the north through the middle of the
week. Meanwhile, a weak wave of low pressure slides up the East
Coast. A dry cold front will cross the region Thursday,
followed by another Canadian high pressure system at the end of
the week into this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure east of the Carolinas is ever so gradually pushing
cloud cover inland. Low clouds follow during the second half of
the night, possibly covering most areas east of the Blue Ridge
by Wednesday morning. To the west where it will remain clear,
some patchy valley fog may form.
There have been a few reports of light rain on the eastern
shore, but notable radar returns remain sparse. Shower chances
will increase gradually from the east overnight, mainly
southeast of I-95. However, at least some spotty showers or
drizzle could reach as far west as the Blue Ridge. Given the dry
air mass in place, much of the initial activity may be lost to
evaporation. For temperatures, it will be around 5 degrees
milder than the previous night, particularly along and east of
I-95 given increased cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sparse shower chances persist into Wednesday morning along the
Chesapeake Bay shores. However, it is more likely that these
showers remain over the Eastern Shore and points eastward. Cloud
cover remains over areas east of the Blue Ridge, but these will
edge eastward in time. Some late day sunshine is possible
across the I-95 corridor. High temperatures are forecast to
remain in the low/mid 70s (60s in the mountains). Overnight lows
drop into the 50s, with some mid/upper 40s possible over the
central Shenandoah Valley back into the Potomac Highlands.
High pressure returns on Thursday with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures actually returning closer to average for this time
of year, with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper troughing will progress off to our south and east on Friday,
enabling high pressure to build to our north. This area of high
pressure will remain in place through Saturday, resulting in
continued dry conditions. Guidance begins to diverge by Sunday and
Monday. Some solutions suggest that a cutoff upper low may develop
overhead, while others maintain a more coherent and progressive
trough that progresses off to our east. If the cutoff solution were
to verify there could be a few showers around those days, but at the
moment most solutions favor continued dry conditions. Temperatures
will remain near normal through the long term period, with highs in
the upper 70s/low 80s and lows in the upper 50s/low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Easterly winds around low pressure off the Carolina coast will
gradually saturate the airmass tonight. Some low clouds will
try to push as far west as the Blue Ridge overnight into
Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings are most likely across the
metro terminals, with a bit more uncertainty toward CHO and MRB.
Most guidance keeps IFR ceilings to the east, but it could be
close for BWI and MTN. MVFR likely continues through Wednesday
at the above-mentioned locations. Northerly winds may gust 15-20
kt at times through the day. There`s a bit more uncertainty with
how quickly ceilings erode as the low moves farther off the
coast. However, VFR may not return area-wide until Thursday
morning.
Prevailing easterly winds and VFR conditions are expected on both
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
The combination of Canadian high pressure to the north and low
pressure moving along a stalled frontal zone to the south will
aid in enhanced north to northeasterly winds through mid-week.
Expect gusts up to around 20 to 25 knots, particularly along
the Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories continue through much
of the day on Wednesday. For the upper/middle tidal Potomac,
wind gusts will likely be right along the advisory threshold,
especially after sunrise Wednesday.
Winds finally start to diminish Wednesday evening as the
aforementioned area of low pressure pushes away from the
region, but some gusts may linger on the wider waters. Sub-SCA
northerly winds are expected Thursday.
Sub-SCA level easterly winds are expected on both Friday and
Saturday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to low pressure moving off the coast and the recent full
moon, tides will remain elevated in the coming days. NE winds
during the middle of the week may assist in locking in higher
water levels and pushing the water toward the western shore.
Alexandria, Annapolis, and Dahlgren are most likely to reach
minor flood stage, but some other locations may be close.
Additional minor flooding could occasionally be an issue
through the end of the week with no real pattern change in
sight.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for
VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO/CJL
NEAR TERM...ADS/BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO/CJL
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/CJL/KJP
MARINE...ADS/BRO/CJL/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion