Hayes Center, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

736
FXUS63 KLBF 212323
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog may be possible overnight into Monday morning
  across north central NE into the river valleys
- Isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon to scattered to
  widespread showers and thunderstorms possible Monday evening
  into Tuesday
- Brief cool down by Tuesday, temperatures warm through the week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sun
Sep 21 2025
Did adjust temperatures around 10 degrees cooler for
afternoon highs across portions of southwest Nebraska, including
North Platte, as persistent stratus lingered into mid-afternoon
over the area, keeping temperatures much cooler than expected.
As for tonight, there is the chance for patchy fog, generally in
the river valleys and across north central Nebraska with the
combination of light winds and low level moisture. At this time
not expecting widespread fog potential. As for precipitation
chances there is a trof across western Nebraska, where an
isolated chance of thunderstorm may be possible. Forecaster
confidence is low in seeing any convection across the cwa,
especially given the stratus that lingered over the area
through mid-afternoon leaving little to no instability, thus
have left the mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast and
expect mostly dry conditions the remainder of the afternoon and
evening.
For Monday, a shortwave trof will move into the forecast area. There
is the potential for thunderstorms to develop as the trof
pushes eastward and there is a narrow instability axis in the
afternoon across the eastern/southeastern portion of the CWA. MU
CAPE will be around 1000 J/kg, generally along and east of HWY
83. Deep layer shear will be marginal around 20 to 25 kts and
moderate lapse rates will lead to a marginal corridor for strong
to severe storms in the afternoon. The main hazards would be
damaging wind gust and large hail. An upper level low will
advance southeastward into the Central Plains late Monday into
Tuesday with more scattered to widespread thunderstorm
development possible. There is still some discrepancy as to the
trajectory of the Low which will lead to the placement of where
the heavy rain will fall. As of right now several of the CAMs
are focusing on southwest Nebraska to potentially see QPF
between a quarter of an inch to half an inch, with the greatest
qpf values further south near the KS/NE border and south.
Precipitation is expected to linger into Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sun
Sep 21 2025
A cold front passage late Monday into Tuesday will cool
temperatures for Tuesday with highs only in the 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures will begin to moderate through the week as a ridge
begins to build in from the west. Temperatures should reach back
into the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday, with dry conditions
expected after Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska tonight and tomorrow. A surface boundary is
observed along the Nebraska-South Dakota border this evening,
creating a line of mid level cumulus clouds and showers across north
central Nebraska. However, rain is expected to miss both the KLBF
and KVTN terminals. Overnight, some patchy fog development is
possible across southwest and north central Nebraska, however
confidence is low in any impacts at area terminals, so have omitted
from TAFS for now. Winds remain light throughout the TAF period,
however, a nearby low may create some shifting wind directions, most
notably at KVTN. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible
in the afternoon to evening hours, but confidence is low in timing
and coverage at this time. However, future TAFs may need to
introduce rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion