Heber City Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

392
FXUS65 KSLC 072130
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
330 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and generally calm conditions hold through
Wednesday. Tropical moisture will start to increase by Thursday and
result in enhanced precipitation chances into the weekend. A cold
front will then move through later Saturday into Sunday and bring
cooler temperatures along with some high elevation snow.
&&
Key Points:
- A substantial increase in moisture is expected from Thursday on
into the weekend as tropical remnants brush through the region.
Periods of moderate to heavy rain will lead to a threat of flash
flooding, particularly for rain sensitive areas.
- A deepening Pacific system will push a strong cold front through
the area around late Saturday to early Sunday. In addition to
bringing much cooler temperatures, it will allow for a period of
high elevation snow (generally above 8000 ft).
- Models show some potential for another system around the middle of
the upcoming week. However, a great deal of uncertainty is noted run
to run and model to model, thus certainty in more specific details
is quite limited at this time.
.DISCUSSION...A quiet weather day is unfolding across the forecast
region this afternoon. Afternoon visible satellite loop shows little
more than a cloud or two developing across some of the northern high
terrain, but nothing really of note. Temperatures remain fairly
seasonable, generally +/- 5F of climatological normal for this time
of year. A similarly quiet day is expected on Wednesday, though
increasing deep southwesterly flow ahead of a deepening Pacific
system will bring warming temperatures and some modestly gusty winds.
Thursday looks to be the first day in a more active forecast period
as moisture associated with Tropical Cyclone Priscilla begins to
lift into the region. Precipitation chances will initially increase
across southern Utah, with chances quickly increasing at areas
further north as moisture continues to increase. This moisture looks
to become maximized Friday and Saturday, with ensemble PWAT values
pushing into the 200-300% of normal range. This highly anomalous
moisture will support showers and thunderstorms capable of efficient
rainfall production, especially where locally higher pockets of
instability can develop throughout the day(s). General model
consensus favors southern to eastern Utah in terms of highest
available moisture and precipitation chances, though chances will be
quite elevated areawide as this moisture lingers. Given the
impressive moisture, chances of excessive rainfall are noted
Thursday through Saturday. This excessive rain/flash flood threat
will especially be noted for rain sensitive areas such as recent
burn scars, slot canyons, typically dry washes, and slickrock areas.
Additionally, some increase in deep layer shear is expected as a
Pacific system deepens into the western U.S., especially Saturday,
and as such a few storms could be on the stronger side (pending how
much instability is ultimately available).
Models continue to then generally support the Pacific system sliding
eastward, in turn pushing a cold frontal boundary late Saturday
afternoon to early Sunday. Given the extra dynamic support from this
Pacific trough and the ample moisture courtesy of the remnant
tropical system, the front will have potential to be accompanied by
a period of moderate to heavy rainfall, maintaining the threat of
locally excessive rainfall. Snow levels will also drop quickly
following the passage of the cold front, falling to around 7500-8500
ft by Sunday morning. Moisture will be decreasing by this time, but
models do show potential for some light high elevation snow before
moisture fully scours out.
Colder temperatures will be maintained Sunday into early in the
upcoming week following the passage of the cold front. Some modest
amount of lingering moisture will maintain isolated high elevation
precipitation chances given the core of the system moving overhead,
but in general precipitation chances will be much lower than the
days prior. Models then show some potential for another system
moving towards the middle of the week, though there is fairly
significant spread in terms of whether this system would be more
progressive in nature or cut off, and in the latter scenario where
exactly it would cut off.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions with typical diurnal wind shifts
are expected at KSLC through the TAF period.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions with diurnally
driven wind patterns are expected at all TAF sites through the
period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A dry and stable air mass is currently serving as
the primary influence to weather across Utah. A Pacific system
will start to deepen through midweek, resulting to a corresponding
increase to deeper southwesterly flow, and in turn lead to some
modest daytime wind gusts generally in the 20-30 mph range. This
may result in some localized areas of elevated fire weather
conditions where fuels remain sufficiently dry.
On Thursday, moisture associated with Tropical Cyclone Priscilla
will start lifting northward into the area. Precipitation chances
in turn increase, initially for southern Utah, with chances
quickly spreading northward as moisture further increases. This
moisture becomes maximized Friday and Saturday, which will lead to
widespread chances of wetting rainfall. The aforementioned
Pacific system will then move inland, pushing a cold front through
Utah late Saturday into early Sunday. This will likely be
accompanied by another period of heavier precipitation, and will
usher in much colder temperatures in its wake. As snow levels
drop, some high elevation snow (generally above 8000 ft) will be
possible into early Sunday.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Seaman
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion