Heglar, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

311
FXUS65 KPIH 072232
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
432 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms today and
  tonight.
- Dry Monday and Monday evening.
- Cooler and unsettled Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Afternoon satellite imagery shows gradually developing CU field
across eastern Idaho while radar returns show some showers/storms
beginning to develop as well. Most of the activity thus far is
focused across the central mountains but we did see a rather robust
storm develop around an hour ago near Pocatello that dropped a quick
1/3 to 1/2 inch of rain on the south side of town. As we progress
through the rest of the day, hi-res CAMs continue to show more
development and just about anyone in the area has a 30-50 percent
chance of seeing some activity before the day is through. Not
expecting wind to be too much of a concern with the atmosphere
running on the more humid side, by Idaho standards, but it can`t be
ruled out completely. Does look like after tonight, we`ll dry
out with no real precip chances expected tomorrow with mostly
clear skies. Temps are all over the place this afternoon with
some cooler temps observed in areas that already had some precip
in the vicinity but generally seeing 70s with some lower 80s
possible in the lower valleys before the day is through.
Tomorrow looks similar from a temp standpoint, maybe a touch
cooler in a few spots, but the downward trend looks to continue
as we progress through the week. More on that below.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Models remain consistent in bringing next round of showers and
thunderstorms into the region Monday night, becoming more widespread
through the day Tuesday. Widespread showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms remain forecast every day through Friday,
but begin to taper off during the weekend. The only disruption to
the pattern could be temporary periods of drier conditions between
shortwaves rotating around the low, as depicted by the operational
GFS. Despite the increased rain chances through the week, average
QPF does not look all that impressive, and any particular location
may will likely see the greatest rainfall under a localized
thunderstorm. Temperatures still remain cool through the week, with
highs generally in the 70s. Ensemble means kick the trough axis east
of the region late Friday into early Saturday. NBM maintains
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in wrap-around
moisture, keeping temperatures cool through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 432 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Main concern is with thunderstorms this evening. After
00z the chances drop pretty quickly at SUN and BYI. Storms should
progress from southwest to northeast this evening with PIH, IDA, and
DIJ potentially affected by storms. Most storms will diminish this
after 04z with light winds for the rest of the night at all TAF
sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Moisture continues across East Idaho today, with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing through the
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Shortwave
feature helping to drive the convection today shifts northeast
overnight. Drier conditions are in place for Monday, and humidities
drop as low as 15-20% once again for lower elevations. Showers
return as early as Monday night for portions of the region, becoming
widespread for much of the rest of the week, along with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures drop into the 70s for daytime
highs, with afternoon humidities staying well above critical
thresholds. Although the deep Pacific trough shifts east of the area
by the weekend, enough wrap-around moisture may remain in place to
keep isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms forecast through
the weekend.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...DMH

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion