Heizer, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS63 KICT 142327
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening,
  mainly along and west of the Flint Hills. An isolated severe
  storm or two possible late this afternoon and evening west of
  I-135.
- Unsettled weather pattern continues Wednesday through the
  weekend, with additional off-and-on rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms.
- Near to above average temperatures through Tuesday, turning
  near to below average Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Upper-level troughing is overhead today and will remain so through
Monday. The initial band of showers with occasional lightning
strikes is expected to remain across central and south central
Kansas but slowly inch eastward as we go through the evening hours.
West of this initial line of showers, skies have cleared and
temperatures have quickly rebounded back into the low to mid 80s
ahead of a weak cold front. This front combined with increasing
upper-level ascent should lead to additional shower and thunderstorm
development this evening and overnight with a few stronger
thunderstorms possible west of I-135. Modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates should lead to surface based CAPE values around 1500 J/kg with
around 50 kts of 0-6km shear. This should be sufficient for a few
organized updrafts to develop with hail up to the size of quarters
and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph. Latest guidance would suggest
the best zone to see this activity would be just west of our
forecast area. As storms shift to the east, instability will
diminish leading to quick end of any severe weather threat with just
showers and thunderstorms moving east overnight. PWAT values around
1.5" suggest the overall heavy rain threat is minimal especially
since storms should steadily move to the east; but a few lucky spots
may pick up a quick inch of rain.
Troughing will remain over the forecast area on Monday as well. The
low-level jet should weaken as we go through the morning hours but
just enough lift may remain to keep some showers around especially
across south central and southeast Kansas. The trough will shift
east Monday evening which will bring an end to any lingering
showers. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will remain near to
slight above average by mid September standards, in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The next upper-level system will approach the region
Tuesday evening and remain overhead through the weekend which will
kickoff a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern. High
temperatures will drop back into the mid 70s to lower 80s for
Wednesday through the weekend with periodic rain chances as well.
Currently the best chance to see area wide rainfall will be on
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Scattered showers and storms will gradually fade away as we move
through the evening hours. Some transient MVFR will be possible
under the heavier activity while VFR prevails elsewhere.
Southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph will be common outside storm
activity. Breezy south winds and VFR will prevail as we move
into the day on Monday across the area.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...MWM

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion