Helen, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

624
FXUS61 KRLX 052046
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
446 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A late summer severe weather threat transpires late today ahead
of a cold front. Active weather remains for the start of the
weekend. High pressure returns Sunday into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 444 PM Friday...
A few cells are already starting to pop up across eastern KY and
southern Ohio along a 2500 J/Kg CAPE boundary. It appears that
scattered cells will continue to manifest and move through the
area from SW to NE this afternoon. The main event will be later
this evening into tonight (7 PM to 10 PM) with the front moving
though the area forcing a messy line of convection through the
area. This activity will continue into the overnight hours as
the front slowly progresses eastward. Any cells this afternoon
and evening could become strong to severe rather quickly given
the instability of the atmosphere. Damaging winds and hail will
be the main concerns, but a chance for a tornado exists for any
cells that move into clear air and tap into 40-50kts of
effective shear.
As of 140 PM Friday...
A cold front crosses slowly east tonight. Meanwhile ahead of
the front, the environment becomes dynamically unstable with
deep shear values from 40 to 60 knots, Helicities exceeding 200
m2/s2, SBCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, and PWATs around reaching 2
inches. Guidance shows better moisture than previous days with
theta-e reaching 346K ahead of the front. These ingredients
could sustain strong updrafts and organized convection this
evening and part of tonight. Latest CAMs show discrete
supercells developing east and west of the OH River late this
afternoon and evening, followed by a convective line later this
evening. Similar convection will continue tonight as the front
moves slowly east, spreading at least showers through Saturday
morning. The area remains highlighted under a Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms by SPC through tonight. Some storms could
be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main
threat. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out through this
evening. Added severe wording to the forecast/grids.
Precipitation will gradually taper off from west to east tonight,
with the cold front stalling east, along the Appalachians by
Saturday morning. Post rain dense fog and low stratus will likely
develop to obstruct visibility overnight into Saturday morning.
By Saturday, an upper level trough/low pressure will bring vorticity
maxima across the area, providing adequate forcing to sustain
additional showers mainly during the afternoon hours. However,
limited moisture may suppress stronger storms to develop across the
west.
Hot temperatures are expected this afternoon in the upper 80s or
lower 90s across the lowlands. A mild night is anticipated with
dewpoints in the mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will be considerably
lower than todays. Highs will struggle to reach the lower 70s
across the lowlands, and the mid 60s northeast mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Friday...
Broad surface high pressure builds from the Mid-west, southeast into
the OH Valley and WV behind the front to provide a long period of
dry weather starting Saturday night through the end of next week.
Cool nights are anticipated under mostly clear skies and calm flow.
Lows will drop below normal levels, into the lower 50s across the
lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s northeast mountains every night
from Saturday through Monday night. Sunday night will be the coldest
with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s across the
higher elevations of our northeast mountains.
Highs on Sunday and Monday will remain below normal, generally in
the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...
Strong surface high pressure will continue to keep weather
conditions dry through most of next week. A cold front is
progged to sink south from the Great Lakes on Thursday, but
models differ in their solutions, bringing a dry cold front.
Believe it is too early to assess the evolution of this new cold
front. So, accepted a dry solution from general guidance for
now.
Temperatures will moderate some to near normal under mostly sunny
skies through most part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...
VFR conditions will prevail under hazy skies through at least
00Z. A cold front will slowly cross east tonight, spreading
showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe
this evening and part of tonight mainly across western WV, SE OH
and NE KY. Timed IFR conditions under heavy rain and low stratus
using PROB groups at most sites using the latest CAMs solutions.
Expect heavier thunderstorms at CRW, HTS and PKB roughly from
01Z through 05Z tonight, and from 03Z through 07Z across eastern
terminals. Periods of IFR under post dense fog will likely
develop overnight.
IFR low stratus may improve to MVFR/VFR across the lowland
terminals by 15-16Z, and long the higher elevations during the
later afternoon hours.
Gusty southwesterly flow this afternoon will become light and
variable tonight. Strong to damaging gusty winds will be
possible with severe thunderstorms this evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of fog/low
stratus and showers/storms could vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in fog and stratus early Sunday morning, at least
in and near the mountains.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion