931 FXUS65 KMSO 152012 AFDMSOArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 212 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Clouds should diminish on Thursday allowing for near seasonal temperatures
- Scattered showers return on Friday
- Cold front expected on Sunday causing cool and showery conditions through Monday
The Northern Rockies continue to be stuck under a stagnant airmass as a broad trough of low pressure remains over the western United States. The lack of flow and cool air has allowed for widespread fog and stratus over the Northern Rockies. This cloud cover is expected to last throughout the night into Thursday morning.
The low pressure system is expected to traverse across central Wyoming into eastern Montana on Thursday. This track is farther to the east then previously forecasted, so precipitation associated with the low will be limited to the Continental Divide across southwest Montana. The exiting low will help increase the flow aloft which should help dissipate this stratus deck allow temperatures to warm to more seasonal readings by Thursday afternoon.
A weak disturbance is expected to quickly clip the Northern Rockies from the northwest on Friday. This disturbance will bring gusty westerly winds along with scattered to numerous showers across the Northern Rockies, especially northwest Montana. Snowlevels appears to be hovering around 4000 to 5000 feet on Friday afternoon. Elevations above 4000 feet around Glacier National Park should anticipated 1 to 3 inches of new snow accumulation by Friday evening.
A transitory ridge of high pressure slides over the region on Saturday causing a momentary dry period. Then a cold front is expected to push across the Northern Rockies on Sunday. Ahead of the front the Camas Prairie and Riggins region could experience gusty southerly winds late Saturday night. The front is anticipated to bring widespread precipitation, gusty westerly winds and cooler temperatures. These cool and showery conditions persist into Monday.
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.AVIATION...Widespread low cloud cover over valley locations has been very stubborn today, but slowly lifting, or getting scoured out by north winds through the afternoon from northwest to southeast in far northwestern Montana. There is a good chance that low stratus conditions persist through the rest of the day and into tomorrow especially from KGPI and southward. Slight chance for rain or snow showers along the Continental Divide through this evening. Rain/snow shower chances for KBTM could last as late as 16/1200z. Increasing clearing and VFR weather conditions for most through Thursday afternoon before high clouds start to move in from the west by the evening. North- northwest ridgetop winds 10-15 knots with light winds anticipated at the surface through the forecast period.
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.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. &&
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NWS MSO Office Area Forecast Discussion