Heman, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

011
FXUS65 KPIH 220812
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
212 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms with light showers this morning and this
  afternoon.
- High pressure returns with strong warming from Tuesday into
  Wednesday.
- High pressure keeps precipitation away until next Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Trough sweeeping in from the west that triggered the showers and
thunderstorms yesterday will continue to do that for the eastern
half of the forecast area, from about Pocatello eastward to the
WY border. Unstable conditions even this morning could mean some
isolated thunderstorms, but more likely for the afternoon. By
late afternoon/early evening, showers should end. This brings
the start of a warming period with clearer skies. Temperatures
should jump 5 to 9 deg F from the Tue high to the Wed high.
Temperatures threaten to reach frost thresholds, mainly in the
three forecast zones that make up the Snake River plain. Will
issue for this region this morning for Tue morning.
Outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow wind, the wind through a
deep layer is very light even today with the departing trough.
Tue looks incredibly light and then only a very slight increase
for Wed.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The warm and dry period continues to the very end of this
timeframe. Temperatures will be at or above normal for the high
each day and below to near normal for morning lows. This may
lead to more Frost Advisories but not quite cold enough for a
freeze. Fri afternoon may have the "strongest" wind, reaching
maybe 10KT/12 mph. See no impactful weather during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The better organized storms are beginning to move east.
Models are still indicating some isolated convection during the
overnight hours. So will continue to mention VC wording at many TAF
sites. Expect clearing during the day on Monday. NAM is trying to
develop some isolated showers during the afternoon that could affect
IDA/DIJ, but its not supported by other models. So will continue
with a SCT wording with no weather for now.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
After some weak and isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers
both this morning and this afternoon, skies should clear early
in the evening and high pressure returns to dominate the weather
pattern for nearly a full week. Humidity starts taking a strong
drop for the afternoon on Thu afternoon, but with dewpoints
staying above 30 deg F in the Snake River plain, it would take
afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s to reach 15 percent.
That may happen on the warmest day this week, Tue, with low 80s
appear possible. However, most temperatures at that elevation
only warm to the upper 70s. The same holds true for higher
elevations, with dewpoints in the middle 20s, the temperature
must warm to the middle 70s, which it just may barely do one day
this week, once the moisture evaporates some and the moisture
content lowers. Then the other consideration is the wind. Under
high pressure, do not see anything likely to increase the wind
to gusting in the 25 to 30 mph range anywhere. Next threat of
precipitation occurs just outside the forecast window, on next
Mon.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ052>054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...Messick

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion