Henley School New York Weather Forecast Discussion

089
FXUS61 KOKX 140009
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
809 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Delmarva meanders into this evening, then
tracks east later tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure off the North
Carolina coast will become the primary offshore low and track well
east of the region on Tuesday. Another low over eastern Canada
will bring a cold front across on Wednesday. High pressure will
then build from the west later this week while low pressure
meanders over the open Atlantic. The high will settle over the
area on Saturday while a warm front passes well to the north,
then pass east on Sunday. A cold front will then approach
Sunday night, and move through late Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure off the Delmarva will meander near the coast into
early this evening, then begin to track slowly eastward. The low
continues to produce gusty northeast winds. There are no wind
headlines as frequent gusts and sustained winds remain below
advisory levels. Winds will be gradually diminishing beginning
early this evening. Rainfall will be relatively light, with
occasional moderate rain as bands of rain rotate across the
region. The low was also still producing coastal flooding: see
the TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for details.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
During Tuesday morning the upper energy with the southern low
will allow for the southern low to then become the primary low
and the low will track eastward through the day while becoming
a broad low. There will be chances of light precipitation
through the day, tapering later in the day and into the evening
as the upper low moves east. Meanwhile the northern branch will
also be active with an upper trough moving into eastern Canada
during Tuesday and Tuesday night, then remaining into Wednesday.
An associated low will drag a cold front through the region
during Wednesday, and with no moisture the front comes through
dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions will prevail through Sunday. It will remain
  breezy through Friday due to the pressure gradient between
  high pressure to the west and low pressure meandering out over
  the open Atlantic.
* Below normal temperatures will prevail through Friday with
  highs only in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Nighttime
  temperatures could fall into the 30s inland and 40s elsewhere.
* Milder weather returns this weekend as a warm front passes to
  the north and the high builds over and east of the area this
  weekend. Temperatures should reach the lower 70s by Sunday.
* A cold front will bring showers Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A coastal storm continues to impact the terminals through
tonight. The low pushes away from the area tomorrow.
Cigs continue to be right around 1kft resulting in IFR/MVFR
conditions this evening. Cigs are expected to lower a bit with
IFR tonight. Rain becomes more showery in nature tonight with
clearing expected Tuesday morning, though there may be a few
isolated showers around into early afternoon. MVFR should
prevail by mid-morning and hold much of the day. Categories
improve to VFR tomorrow evening with a rising ceiling.
NNE wind gusts will range from 25-35 kt into early evening,
especially at NYC terminals, Long Island, and coastal
Connecticut terminals. Strongest gusts expected KISP and KGON.
Winds begin decreasing tonight with peak gusts 20-25 kt at
coastal terminals toward daybreak Tuesday. North winds then hold
steady through the day tomorrow with a gradually diminishing
wind into the evening. Gusts are expected to end by Tuesday
evening around 23Z-1Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for ceilings and visibilities. Wind gusts
could end up slightly lower than forecast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Replaced the gale warning with SCA for NY Harbor until 2 AM and
for the western Sound until 8 AM as winds diminish, though
there could still be an occasional gusts up to 35 kt early this
evening. With stronger winds continuing elsewhere the Gale
Warning remains in effect for all other waters until at least 2
AM, for all the ocean waters through at least 8 AM, and for the
ocean E of Fire Island Inlet until 12 PM Tue.
Once the gale conditions end SCA gusts will remain on most of
the non ocean waters through Tue, and possibly into Tue evening.
Then with low pressure passing east on Wed gusts increase to
small craft levels once again. On the ocean waters SCA
conditions continue through Wednesday.
SCA cond expected on all waters except NY Harbor from Wed night
into Thu night, with N-NW winds gusting to 25-30 kt (highest on
the ocean) and ocean seas 5-8 ft. Minimal SCA cond Fri morning
on the ocean (seas 4-6 ft and gusts still up to 25 kt) should
continue into Fri morning, with a chance that 5-ft seas could
could linger into the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels continue to recede. Coastal Flood Advisory remains
in effect for SW Suffolk, where tidal piling on the western
Great South Bay should result in brief minor flooding with the
high tide late tonight, then more widespread minor and locally
moderate flooding with the high tide late Tue afternoon.
Water levels could also briefly touch minor flood thresholds in
spots late Tue afternoon in S Nassau, also along tidal
waterways of NE NJ and Staten Island. High surf up to 7 ft
could still produce minor beach erosion on the oceanfront into
Tue morning. Statements issued for these hazards.
As winds and seas both subside, tidal piling will diminish,
ending the coastal flood threat thereafter for most places.
Couldn`t rule out some brief/spotty flooding on the Great
South Bay with the late day Wed high tide cycle.
Forecast is from bias-corrected 12Z PETSS ensemble 50%
exceedance based on its performance during the last high tide
cycle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ080.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ335.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion