Heusner Elementary School Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

653
FXUS63 KICT 141952
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
252 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers continue across central KS; diminishing by early
  evening
- Dry and mild conditions for midweek
- Rain chances return for late week into Saturday and possibly
  early next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
As of 230 PM, midlevel heights continue to amplify as a ridge axis
retrogrades across the lower Plains. Despite that, broad midlevel
WAA and subtle perturbations within the southwest flow continue to
produce scattered showers from eastern NM through central KS. As the
ridge axis continues to amplify and shift west, the potential for
showers will shift west as well with dry conditions expected this
evening and overnight. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday
and Thursday as the ridge axis remains overhead.
An intense midlevel shortwave trough will eject into the northern
Rockies/Plains late Thursday into Thursday night. This will shunt a
surface trough axis towards central KS by Friday morning/afternoon.
This frontal passage may be accompanied by a few showers/storms
across central KS Friday morning/afternoon. The better storm chances
arrive late Friday into Friday night as a secondary shortwave trough
ejects into the central Plains, drastically increasing rain
chances (60-70%) for areas generally along and southeast of the
KS Turnpike. GFS and ECMWF solutions are in general agreement
with the frontal location Friday afternoon/evening (near the KS
Turnpike) and the background wind profiles. Each produces a
modestly veered profile through 3-4 km with acceleration through
6 km, producing 35-40 kt of effective shear. The main
discrepancy is the quality of moisture return. ECMWF advects
dew points in the low/mid 60s, whereas the GFS holds dew points
in the 50s. As a result, uncertainty remains with the magnitude
of instability ahead of the trough axis. A few lingering
showers/storms are possible Saturday morning across southeast
KS, as the shortwave trough exits to the east. Mid/long range
guidance (ECMWF/GFS) continue to suggest another potent
shortwave trough will emerge from the southern Rockies early
next week (Monday-Tuesday timeframe).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions have returned at all sites and VFR conditions are
expected through the remainder of the period. A few showers are
ongoing across the OK and TX Panhandles. These may impact GBD or
RSL this afternoon and have added a PROB30 to account for this
potential. Otherwise, winds will remain from the south at 6-12
kt.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion