Hickman, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

808
FXUS64 KOHX 131724
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Low rain chances tonight and tomorrow morning. Little if any
  impacts expected.
- Afternoon highs remain a few degrees above normal through most
  of the week.
- Low to medium rain chances for the second half of next week with
  temperatures starting to regulate slightly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Yeah, it might be a little warmer than many want for this time of
the year, but honestly, with dew points in a very manageable
range, it`s pretty darn comfortable out there. Afternoon highs
will climb into the low 90s again (cooler on the Plateau) with a
bunch of sunshine to boot. While we`ve been touting rain-free
conditions for several days now, looking ahead to tonight, I don`t
know if that`s going to hold up. A shortwave disturbance currently in
the Ohio Valley is expected to dive southward through this
afternoon and into the overnight hours and will bring with it a
low chance of showers after midnight and into the daylight hours
tomorrow. Now, don`t get me wrong. These aren`t going to be
drought-busting gully washers. We`re talking about a few showers
that are going to have to fight through some pretty dry air we
currently have in place. However, with the last few hi-res model
runs showing this potential, I want to have at least a mention of
rain as there are several outdoor events planned in Middle TN on
Sunday. Even if you don`t get rain, additional cloud cover should
stymie any overnight fog and potentially blanket areas along and
north of I-40, keeping things a little warmer than they would
otherwise get.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
I have noticed that the NBM finally picks up on the influence of
tonight`s weak shortwave, but not until tomorrow night. It is
spitting out some small PoPs tomorrow evening and this might be
the case into Monday as well, as many models are showing this
shortwave and an upper level trough just off to our east that
could provide a low-end chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. Again,
we`re not talking about a bunch of QPF, but a few hundredths could
work their way to the ground. This also might account for the
forecast highs in this time frame being a few degrees cooler than
we`ve been seeing the last several days.
By Wednesday, as the upper trough to our east starts to pull away
from the region, weak ridging should take its place. This should
get rid of those low rain chances as afternoon highs are expected
to continue to be a few degrees above seasonal norms. However, as
the second half of the workweek gets here, another disturbance is
progged to arrive from the northwest. This should increase rain
chances and I actually question the NBM`s afternoon highs,
especially as we get into next weekend. It has backed off a
little, and should continue to do so with the effects of an upper
trough over the east half of the country next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions prevail with light and variable winds and mainly
clear skies. There is a low chance isolated rain showers tonight
and into Sunday morning, mainly between 06Z and 18Z. However,
probability is too low to include in any TAF. Minimal to no
impacts are expected. Otherwise, winds will be light throughout
the period and generally out of the SE to SW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  91  67  92 /  20  20  10  10
Clarksville    65  93  66  93 /  20  20  20  10
Crossville     59  81  59  82 /  20  20  10  10
Columbia       62  90  65  89 /  10  20  10  10
Cookeville     61  83  61  85 /  20  20  10   0
Jamestown      61  82  60  85 /  20  20  10   0
Lawrenceburg   61  88  64  87 /   0  20  10  10
Murfreesboro   63  90  65  90 /  20  20  10  10
Waverly        65  92  65  92 /  20  20  20  10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion