Hickory Creek Trail, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

483
FXUS61 KCTP 012300
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
700 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Seasonable cool down to start October with clear, crisp and
  chilly/frosty conditions tonight into early Thursday morning
* Temperatures rebound into late week and climb well above
  average for early October this weekend into next week
* Extended dry pattern continues with no rainfall and low
  humidity expected through Monday; next chance of rain Tue-Wed
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cloud-free, very pleasant afternoon/evening across CPA with a
refreshing and gradually decreasing breeze from the northeast.
+MSLP/-PWAT anomalies set the stage for a clear, crisp, and
chilly night with frost formation across north central PA. The
colder valleys in the Laurel Highlands and south central
Alleghenies will likely see at least some patchy predawn/daybreak
frost and have expanded the frost advy to cover these areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
After a cool start, the Autumn feels continue on Thursday with
high clouds and maxes in the 65-70F range, marking a nadir in
daytime high temps. Another cool and crisp early October
[Thursday] night with partly cloudy skies and lows in 40s.
Friday will mark the start of a prolonged early Fall warming
trend with max temps in the 70s and lows 40-50F. We anticipate
some valley fog both nights with perhaps greater coverage
overnight Friday due to less mid/high cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly sunny and very warm days followed by comfortable sleeping
nights over the weekend into early next week. Highs will climb
well above the historical average for early October (+10-15F)
reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. The dry air in place will keep
min temps closer to/but still above climo. No rainfall is
expected Saturday through Monday.
Model and ensemble mean consensus finally bring some rainfall
back into the picture by the middle of next week, with a cold
frontal passage projected around next Tuesday/Wednesday. NBM/WPC
blended QPF amounts within that 24 to 48 hr period are in the
0.10 to 0.75" range from SE to NW - so certainly not a drought
buster we will take what we can get.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect clear skies to prevail overnight. The potential for fog
is low, given the dry airmass, and a slight breeze. The moisture
is very low once one gets several thousand feet off the ground.
Thurday into the weekend should feature sunny warm days and cool
nights. The potential for fog Thursday night is a bit higher, as
the pressure gradient is expected to be weaker than this
evening.
Outlook...
Fri-Mon: AM fog; otherwise VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion