Hickory Grove Cemetery Delaware Weather Forecast Discussion

426
FXUS61 KPHI 131730
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
130 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will continue to affect the region through
today, bringing significant impacts to the coastal areas.
Improving conditions expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens
and moves out to sea. High pressure will begin building back
into the region during the latter half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 8:00 AM...have allowed both the remaining High Wind
Warnings and Wind Advisories for Monmouth and Ocean Counties to
expire. Winds have peaked overnight and are gradually subsiding
this morning. Occasional gusts in excess of 40 mph are still
possible, however the threat has diminished.
Previous discussion is below:
The more expansive rain shield has continued to move westward
across our area. There continues to be low-level moistening for
areas west of I-95 with showers and drizzle for these areas. A
robust easterly low-level jet at 850 mb has continued to lift
northward across our far eastern areas and especially the marine
zones. The KDIX radar velocity data shows an area of 55-60
knots of wind around 3500 feet AGL just offshore of Monmouth
county. This will enhance some lift through this morning, and as
a result areas of rain are anticipated to continue to expand
farther west through this morning. The main impacts will
continue to be felt across our coastal communities due to
onshore winds and significant/severe coastal flooding. Wind
gusts along the coast have been as high as 50-60 mph with a few
over 60 mph so far.
For the rainfall associated with this system, we have already
seen amounts of 0.50-1.50 inches with localized higher amounts
along the coast. Outside of the coastal areas, totals drop off
quickly, especially closer to I-95 and west of I-95. Additional
rainfall looks to be around 0.25-0.50 outside of the coastal
areas with this falling mainly through today. Our coastal areas
from Atlantic County northward to Monmouth County could pick up
an additional 1-2 inches, especially with the enhancement from
the robust low-level jet located in this area currently. By
tonight, we trend drier with some showers lingering.
The main concern with this system continues to be the coastal
flooding (see coastal flooding section below). The winds will
continue to be on the stronger side through daybreak which is
why some of the headlines were briefly extended. During the day
today, it will still be breezy with gusts inland near 30 MPH at
times and near 40 MPH at the immediate coast.
Our temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
There won`t be much of a drop overnight with temperatures mainly
in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Coastal low will slowly move east into the ocean and weaken
Tuesday, with chance of rain gradually ending and potentially
some breaks of sun returning, but gusty winds will linger much
of the day, especially near the coast. Highs rebound well into
the 60s for most.
Clouds gradually continue diminishing on Tuesday night as the
low continues heading out to sea. Wind should stay elevated so
not much risk of fog. Lows mostly in the low to mid 50s.
Wednesday looks relatively sunny even as a cold front pushes
southward across the region, resulting in an increase in the
northwesterly winds. Highs should also be elevated, well into
the 60s with some spots cracking 70.
Cold advection takes strong hold behind the front Wednesday
night under mostly clear skies. Lows mostly in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian high pressure dominates Thursday and Friday, with
sunny to partly cloudy skies. This may be the coldest air mass
of the season thus far, with many locales struggling to reach 60
during Thursday, and only a little milder on Friday. With much
of our northern zones now out of the growing season due to last
week`s freeze, the question of frost/freeze headlines is murky,
as areas which haven`t frozen yet may still have enough of a
breeze Thursday night to keep them from freezing, despite the
chilly air mass in place. Lows Thursday night will be in the 30s
for much of the region, except 40s in the warmest spots, while
staying a few degrees warmer Friday night.
Warm front slips across the region as high pressure presses
east of the region Saturday, with temps warming back closer to
70 during the day despite a bit of an increase in mainly high
cloud cover. Next frontal system then approaches Saturday night
and Sunday, with more clouds and an increasing risk of showers.
Enough warm advection should occur to hold many areas at 50 or
higher Saturday night, and push temps into the low-mid 70s for
most on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of Today...A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions around the
region. Likely IFR conditions are to prevail for KMIV/KACY, with
MVFR prevailing at all other terminals. Have included TEMPO
groups for I-95 terminals for IFR ceilings over the next several
hours. Periods of light rain, intermittent showers, mist and
drizzle expected. North-northeast winds around 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 25-30 kt possible. Moderate-low confidence overall.
Tonight...Anticipate IFR conditions (primarily ceilings) to
prevail for much of the overnight period at all terminals.
Visibility restrictions possible as light rain transitions to
showers, mist and drizzle, especially after midnight. Northeast
winds around 10-15 kt with isolated gusts up to 20 kt possible,
especially near KACY. Low confidence overall.
Tuesday...IFR ceilings early, improving to MVFR ceilings by
mid-late morning. Gradual improvement to VFR possible after 18Z
from west to east. North-northeast winds around 10-15 kt with
occasional gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate-high confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Friday...VFR rest of this week.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 8:00 AM, have downgraded the remaining Storm Warnings to
Gale Warnings on the Atlantic coastal waters as wind
observations offshore are gradually diminishing. Otherwise,
other Gale Warnings remain unchanged at this time.
North-northeast winds to continue with winds sustained between
15-30 kt with gusts up to 40-45 kt possible this afternoon.
Winds will gradually subside a bit, but still remain upwards of
35-40 kt overnight. Seas of 12-16 feet today and 10 to 12 feet
overnight.
Outlook...
Gale conditions will continue on the ocean waters
Tuesday as the low pulls out to sea and away from the region,
with SCA on Delaware Bay. Should drop back mostly to Small Craft
Advisory conditions by Tuesday night for the ocean waters and
potentially sub-SCA on the bay, but then probably level off at
this condition (at least SCA on the ocean waters) through
Thursday. Should mostly drop below SCA conditions on the ocean
waters Friday wind-wise, but seas may yet remain elevated to
SCA levels.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Updated the tide forecasts based on current tidal departures. No
changes made to the coastal flood warnings and advisories. With
the latest update, the only site still forecast to get to major
flooding is Barnegat Inlet and southern portions of Barnegat
Bay. Otherwise, moderate flooding is expected for the remainder
of the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, Delaware Bay, and
southern shores of the Raritan Bay. Minor tidal flooding is
expected on the tidal Delaware River with this evening`s high
tide, where a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect.
Additional beach erosion and dune breaching are possible along
the entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches due to the
very high/dangerous surf conditions through today.
It looks as if the high tide later today will be the last tide
of significant concern. There may minor tidal flooding with the
high tide tonight and especially tomorrow. However, we will have
a better idea the degree and extent of minor tidal flooding with
those cycles once we see the tidal departure trends with today`s
high tide.
That being said, given the nature of this event, tidal flooding
impacts could linger longer on back bays such as Barnegat Bay
in NJ and the Indian River Bay, Rehoboth Bay, and Little
Assawoman Bay in DE.
No tidal flooding is expected for our eastern shore counties
along Chesapeake Bay.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-
     071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ431-451>455.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Guzzo
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion