Hiles Mill Pond 17, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

731
FXUS63 KGRB 291100
AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
600 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog and low clouds are expected across the region
  tonight. The fog will likely affect the morning commute on
  Tuesday.
- An extended period of dry and low-impact weather is forecast
  through the next week. Above to much above average temperatures
  are expected during this time frame.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Some patchy fog has been noted this morning across the region;
however, with a dearth of moisture, as evidenced by the very dry
00Z KGRB RAOB sounding and the 0.53 inch PWAT value from the
sounding, the fog will not be widespread with a low impact across
the region.
Mostly sunny skies and warm 850 mb temperatures in the middle
teens will bring another very warm day to the region as highs soar
to around 80 degrees across the north with lower 80s across
central and east-central Wisconsin away from the lakeshore.
A weak cold front will drop south tonight, which will bring
slightly cooler temperatures to the region. Fog should be more
ubiquitous tonight as model soundings show low level moisture
trapped in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Model and MOS
guidance also hint at a better chance for widespread fog tonight;
therefore, bumped up the intensity and coverage of the fog across
the region tonight. The fog will likely affect the morning commute
on Tuesday as sunrise is getting fairly late in the year.
Canadian high pressure will ridge across the Great Lakes region
through the rest of the week, and will be slow to shift east due
to the blocking influence of a couple tropical systems in the
western Atlantic. The frontal passage will bring a minor cooling
trend mid-week, followed by much above normal temperatures into
the early part of the weekend. Recent model trends are a bit
quicker with the frontal passage and chances for precipitation
this upcoming weekend, with a chance for showers across central
and north-central Wisconsin on Saturday and the rest of the region
Saturday night. The slow moving nature of the front will mean
small chances for rain will continue through the rest of the
weekend into early next week. This period of the forecast doesn`t
look to be a washout, with periods of dry periods interspersed at
times, but with exact timing hard to pinpoint at this juncture.
Winds will pick up a bit out of the southeast Wednesday night
into Thursday, leading to possible marine concerns (Small Craft
Advisories) on Lake Michigan, especially south of Two Rivers.
&&
.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A dry airmass will provide light winds and clear skies through
this evening. Some patchy ground fog is possible early in the TAF
period, but should be transient and have a low impact on the TAF
sites.
Low stratus and fog are expected tonight into Tuesday morning
with MVFR/IFR conditions possible after 06Z. The best chance for
the lowest conditions for the longest period of time appears to be
central and north-central Wisconsin according to the MOS
guidance; however, fog is expected to be more widespread will all
sites having a chance to see LIFR or lower conditions. Hit the
central and north-central Wisconsin TAF sites the hardest with
this issuance, but the other sites may be adjusted downward in
subsequent forecasts.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion