Hillcrest, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

402
FXUS62 KMFL 241145
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Weak high pressure over the northeast Gulf will remain in control
through Thursday, with light E/NE winds across the local area.
Current ACARS soundings and forecast soundings across South FL show
deep moisture remaining in place with PWAT values ranging from 2.1-
2.3 inches. Convection today and Thursday will be primarily sea-
breeze driven during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the
highest PoPs each day over the interior and SW FL. Mainly dry
overnight tonight with some just widely scattered coastal showers.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal with highs today and
tomorrow ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps tonight
will be in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
As we approach the end of the work week into the weekend, a trough
will dive down into the Gulf and eventually become a cut off low
over the SE US late in the weekend into early next week. A frontal
boundary is expected to approach the region during the weekend but
will likely stall and then dissipate north of Lake Okeechobee.
Meanwhile, a disturbance in the eastern Caribbean has a high chance
(70%) of formation in the next 7 days. While this disturbance has a
high chance of formation, there is a lot of uncertainty on what will
happen to this system after it forms, and how or if it will interact
with another disturbance to its east that also has a high chance of
formation. Then there is the question of how the trough/cut off low
factors into the steering of any potential system. Because of this,
the long range forecast for South FL remains highly uncertain, so
didn`t stray much from the NBM which shows roughly 40-50 PoPs across
South FL each day this weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures in the extended will continue to be slightly above
normal, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low
temps each day will generally range from the low/mid 70s over the
interior, to upper 70s closer to the coasts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Light and variable winds will remain generally weak with easterly
winds 5-10 kts this afternoon. APF should again experience a
westerly Gulf breeze expected after 16Z. Scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight
restrictions and erratic winds with possible MVFR/IFR periods.
Winds become L/V again after 00-01Z, along with VFR prevailing
tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Gentle easterly breeze expected through the end of the work week,
with winds becoming westerly each afternoon across the nearshore
Gulf waters. Seas in the Atlantic will be 2 ft or less, with seas in
the Gulf a foot or less. Scattered thunderstorms possible each day
which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Northeast swell will result in an elevated risk of rip currents
for the Palm Beaches through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  78  90  77 /  60  30  60  30
West Kendall     91  76  91  76 /  60  20  70  30
Opa-Locka        91  78  92  77 /  60  30  60  30
Homestead        90  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  30
Fort Lauderdale  89  78  90  77 /  60  30  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  90  79  90  77 /  60  30  60  30
Pembroke Pines   92  79  92  77 /  60  30  60  30
West Palm Beach  89  78  90  77 /  50  30  60  30
Boca Raton       91  77  91  75 /  60  30  60  40
Naples           92  77  91  77 /  60  30  50  20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion