Hillsborough Community College Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

727
FXUS62 KTBW 120041
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
841 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
No significant changes required to existing forecast. Expansive
area of low clouds continues this evening across most of the area
with gradual improvement likely late tonight into Sunday. Cooler
night ahead under northerly flow with lows mostly in the 60s,
followed by clearing skies on Sunday with highs in the lower to
mid 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
A stubborn stratus deck has been rather slow to erode and mix out
as low level moisture continues to linger in the northeasterly
flow but skies will continue to clear through this evening and
especially overnight as low level moisture gradually scours out.
The rather persistent low clouds observed so far today have
generally kept any opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize
at a minimum but there has been a bit more clearing for southern
portions of the area so there may be just enough development of
instability to support a few low-topped showers in southern
portions of the forecast area through the remainder of the day.
Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected elsewhere, especially
north of I-4, through this evening and the decreasing low level
moisture will yield much less cloud cover on Sunday, which will
bring a slight boost in temperatures as well with highs in the
low/mid 80s. These values will still remain a few degrees below
normal tomorrow due to the presence of a mid level trough/low that
is currently across the region but will continue to close off
through tonight. Meanwhile, a coastal low gradually deepens as it
lifts from offshore of the Atlantic coast of FL to offshore of the
Carolinas by tonight. As the upper low/trough pull away from the
area in the coming days, the coastal low starts to stall as it
becomes increasingly occluded before eventually pushing further
offshore early to mid week next week. This overall synoptic
pattern will help to maintain a mostly northerly flow across west
central and southwest Florida initially in the low levels this
weekend before becoming a deeper northerly flow into the new week
with the passage of the trough axis aloft. This will bring in a
much drier air mass and keep temperatures a touch below normal
values tomorrow as previously mentioned, but despite the northerly
flow into early next week, highs should recover to near normal
values by Monday as heights aloft increase with building ridging
across the southern Plains.
The aforementioned broad ridge in control across the southern
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley and surface high pressure
building in from the north will be in full control through the
majority of next week, maintaining a prolonged stretch of dry
weather and more comfortable humidity levels. Highs do return to
near climatological normal values by around mid week and will
increase a bit further by the end of the week as the low level
flow becomes increasingly more easterly with less marine
influence. Regardless, this pattern will favor pleasant weather
conditions with PWATs generally around an inch or so each day so
expect mainly sunny skies and no rainfall to generally prevail.
There may then be a slight uptick in moisture by next week ahead
of the next frontal system, though a consensus blend of PoPs
keeps PoPs generally below 20% through the end of the forecast
period at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
VFR cigs AOA 050 continue across terminals with N/NE winds
overnight, with TEMPO MVFR cigs the next couple hours for SWFL
terminals FMY/RSW before lifting to VFR. Gradual improvement
late overnight through Sunday morning with winds shifting to N/NW
late morning into afternoon, generally 5-10 knots through period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue in central and southern
marine zones, including Tampa Bay waters, as breezy NE winds
continue on the backside of a coastal low in the southwest
Atlantic. The Small Craft Advisory conditions should diminish
tonight but small Craft should exercise caution into Sunday
morning. Winds shift northerly on Sunday below 15 kts with seas
gradually easing to 4 ft or less for the eastern Gulf waters. By
early next week, seas fall to 2 ft or less with winds primarily
out of the northeast as high pressure builds north of the area,
though brief periods of exercise caution conditions may be
possible at times by mid week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Deeper moisture is beginning to depart the area as a drier air
mass builds in behind a coastal system lifting into the Carolinas
later this weekend. As this drier air builds in, minimum RH values
are anticipated to lower this weekend and into next week with
values possibly reaching around 40 percent by Tuesday. However,
wind speeds will remain below critical levels so this should
prevent red flag conditions from developing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  84  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  68  85  68  88 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  65  85  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  67  83  67  85 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  61  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  81  70  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion