Hineston, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

421
FXUS64 KLCH 300540
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1240 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure aloft will keep a dry air mass in place through
  midweek with no chance for rain, very warm days, and mild
  nights.
- An slight increase in moisture to go along with a developing
  upper level disturbance will bring a small chance for rain late
  in the week into this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
An upper level ridge responsible for creating relatively dry
conditions past few days is forecast to break down today as an
upper level trough descends through the Southern Plains. Because
this feature has developed over a dry continental airmass with no
source region for moisture, conditions will remain dry through
this evening. However, guidance has been suggestive increased
cloud coverage throughout the afternoon where RH is higher near
300mb. Highs will trend near 90F with light and variable winds.
Thus, our pattern of dry afternoons will continue into the midweek
as light north winds are reinforced while highs trend toward low
90`s and overnight temperatures range from low to upper 60`s from
interior location down to the coast. Worth noting surface RH will
be fairly low, between 30 - 45 %, during the afternoons which
increases susceptibility of dry fuels to burn.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
By Thursday, troughing along the Midwest deepens south across the
Lower Mississippi Valley while surface flow gains stronger east
components. This pattern change will help bring more moisture to the
region but unfortunately it does not translate to much rainfall
potential. Whilst isolated activity is possible, it is favored
best toward the Atchafalaya Basin. Downstream, a high pressure
cell will build over Ontario and shift over the New England states
by Friday. Locally this feature exhibits ridging to the MS/LA
Gulf Coast while slack troughing develops along the western Gulf.
PoPs increase across offshore, but guidance is hesitant to bring
these chances of rainfall inland given a shore parallel wind
gradient. Do believe isolated activity is possible toward the
coast, but will be limited due to low surface RH and a NE-E wind
regime. Hereafter into the weekend, uncertainty increase as
deterministic guidance has held on to the idea of a upper level
troughing deepening offshore. However, placement of this feature
continues to suggest offshore flow with southerly moisture
advection lying primarily east of the Mississippi.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Dry air and slight ridging over the region will keep dry, VFR
conditions in the forecast through the period. Clouds will continue
to build in overhead on trof moving across central Texas. Northeast
winds will prevail.
11
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Surface high pressure ridging down into the coastal waters through
mid week will keep a light to occasionally modest offshore flow to
go along with mainly low seas. By the end of the week, the surface
high will be ridging down from the Mid-Atlantic area, producing more
of an easterly flow. No significant chance of shower activity is
noted through mid week, with shower activity increasing toward the
end of the week with an upper level disturbance developing over the
northern Gulf.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The forecast pattern will not change much over the next few days
with high pressure at the surface and aloft over the region.
Therefore, a dry air mass will remain in place with no significant
chance for rainfall through midweek. Afternoon minimum relative
humidity values are expected to be between 30 and 45 percent today
with little change through Wednesday. Surface winds will remain from
mainly the north and northeast at less than 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  64  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  89  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  89  68  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  89  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...11

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion