Hjelte Sports Center, California Weather Forecast Discussion

325
FXUS66 KLOX 030709
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1209 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...02/646 PM.
A series of weak disturbances will keep persistent night through
morning low clouds going across most of the coasts and some lower
valleys through Friday. Weak offshore flow will bring mostly
sunny skies to the area for the weekend. Gusty winds are expected
Friday afternoon and Friday night for Southwest Santa Barbara
County, and some mountain and desert locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...02/813 PM.
***UPDATE***
A closed upper low will move across northern and Central
California tonight through Friday. Rain chances will mostly
remain north of the area where there are stronger frontal
dynamics. However there is a low chance (10-20%) of light rain in
far north to northeast San Luis Obispo County this evening, with
even lower chances affecting eastern San Luis County and the
northern mountain slopes later tonight and Friday. The main local
impact of the passing low will be to push some mid to upper level
clouds across areas north of Point Conception through Friday. In
addition, winds will increase in some areas behind the low
starting this evening, and still further Friday afternoon and
Friday night.
Gusty northwest winds over portions of Southern Santa Barbara
County should remain sub- Advisory levels tonight (35 to 40 mph)
but will likely increase to Advisory strength Friday afternoon
through late Friday night. Increasing winds are also expected for
the Interstate 5 Corridor and the western Antelope Valley during
this time. Northwest to north winds up to 35 mph with gusts 40 to
50 mph are expected.
For tonight into Friday morning, stratus coverage should be
limited to the Central Coast and Santa Ynez Valley, and the coast
and coastal valleys of LA and Ventura Counties. Weak offshore
winds should keep the area clear Friday night into Saturday
morning.
A cooling trend will continue into Friday thanks to the upper low,
followed by warming on Saturday caused by rising heights and
offshore flow.
***From Previous Discussion***
By Saturday the upper low will move east to Utah, but then on
Sunday the trough takes on a positive tilt and moves back over the
area through early next week. Models are showing another
developing Low west of Washington by next  Thursday that will
bring another chance of rain to next weekend.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...02/215 PM.
For the extended, models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, a trough will remain over Central CA
Sunday and Monday then will lift out of the area. Near the
surface, onshore flow increases on Sunday/Monday, but weakens on
Tuesday/Wednesday.
Marine layer stratus/fog should increase in coverage
Sunday/Monday with increasing onshore gradients and lowering H5
heights. However for Tuesday/Wednesday, the stratus coverage
should diminish as H5 heights rising and offshore trends in the
surface gradients. Other than any stratus, skies should remain
mostly clear through the period.
As for temperatures, a gradual cooling trend can be expected for
Sunday and Monday with increasing onshore flow and lowering H5
heights. However, those temperatures will rebound on Tuesday and
Wednesday as H5 heights rise and onshore surface gradients relax.
A bit further out into the Thursday/Friday time frame, there is
the possibility of some subtropical moisture moving into the area
as models indicate another tropical storm off the Baja Mexico
coast. Confidence in any details remains very low at this time as
models are in disagreement about the track. However, it is
something to watch for the second half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...03/0605Z.
At 0434Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 1200 ft with a temperature of 21 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF. Max wind gusts may
be off +/- 10 kts at times. Wind direction may vary between 270
and 340 degrees, especially after 18Z.
Low confidence in remaining TAFs due to disorganized nature of
marine layer clouds. Cigs may bounce between SCT and OVC at times
through the morning. Otherwise, minimum flight cats may be off by
one cat and flight cat change times may be off by +/- 3 hours.
West to north winds will increase after 15Z, and max winds may be
off +/- 10 kts at times. For KBUR and KVNY, low confidence in
timing of wind direction shifts.
KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off by
+/- 3 hours and min cig height may be off +/- 300 ft. .
Disorganized marine layer clouds will cause cigs to bounce between
SCT and OVC through at least 18Z. Winds may gusts up to 30 kts
from the west between 22Z and 03Z. After 06Z Sat, there is a 40%
chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kts through at least
17Z Sat.
KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off by
+/- 3 hours and min cig height may be off +/- 300 ft.
Disorganized marine layer clouds will cause cigs to bounce between
SCT and OVC through at least 18Z. Timing of wind shifts may be off
by 2 hours
&&
.MARINE...03/1208 AM.
A GALE Warning is in effect for the waters around Point
Conception and south to San Nicolas Island as well as across the
entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel Friday afternoon into the
late night hours. Along with dangerous seas, winds up to 40 kts
are possible. Localized GALE force wind gusts are possible for the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday afternoon
(PZZ645). Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will linger
following gale force winds for the outer waters and portions of
the inner waters thru Saturday night. After Saturday night,
conditions generally look to remain below SCA criteria through
mid-week.
For the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange counties, high
confidence in widespread SCA level NW to W winds Friday afternoon
through evening, including nearshore (specifically Long Beach &
northward). There is a fairly high chance for GALE force winds
near Anacapa Island to Point Mugu and Santa Barbara Island during
this period. Thereafter, conditions generally look to remain
below SCA criteria through mid-week.
Seas will be large and very choppy, peaking between 8 and 12 feet
for the Outer Waters and nearshore Central Coast waters, and 5 to
8 feet for the inner waters south of Point Conception, highest in
the Santa Barbara Channel. Seas may near 10 feet in the Santa
Barbara Channel at times.
These strong winds and large, choppy seas will create dangerous
boating conditions for many of the nearshore waters around the
islands and at the coasts, especially portions of the Santa
Barbara County coast, Ventura County coast, and portions of the
Los Angeles County coasts. These conditions will be especially
dangerous for small vessels. Remain in safe harbor on Friday and
Friday night until conditions improve.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 5
      AM PDT Saturday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM this morning to 11
      PM PDT this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...jld/cc
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Phillips/Black
SYNOPSIS...jld/Ciliberti
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion