Holbrook Island Sanctuary, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

643
FXUS61 KCAR 141826
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
226 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build down from the north tonight and crest
over the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will move
east of the area Thursday. Another cold front will cross the
region Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weak cold front will move out of the area by tonight. Any
lingering rain showers will move out over the waters this
evening as high pressure settles in. Early cloud cover will keep
temps from reaching into frost levels. With the clearing skies
and calm winds, patchy fog is expected in the lower terrain.
For Monday and Monday night, high pressure will remain in the
region making for mostly clear skies. Monday will see temps in
the low 70s for the north and mid 70s for the south. Monday
night will see temps in the 40s with patchy fog in the lower
terrain. As of this update, the temps from the NBM seem
reasonable, but can see a decrease to the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and warm Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper level ridge of high
pressure will be centered to our west, and this ridge is near
record strong for this time of year in the James Bay region.
Meanwhile, a vertically stacked low will be sitting on the
Carolina coast. Just a subtle change from Tuesday to Wednesday,
with the surface high pressure on Tuesday being centered over
the Gulf of Maine, but then moving a few hundred miles to the
east on Wednesday. The two things this will mean are slightly
warmer temperatures Wednesday than Tuesday for all but the
coast, and a return of possible coastal fog late Tuesday night
into Wednesday thanks to a bit stronger onshore flow. Clouds
Tuesday and Wednesday will be few and far between with primarily
intermittent cirrus. Patchy fog Tuesday night in the usual
valleys, with probably a return to patchy marine fog later in
the night as well. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s
Tuesday, then on Wednesday around 80 for all but the immediate
coast. NBM had been trending warmer for high temperatures
Wednesday, but has finally leveled off.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper trough and surface cold front begins approaching from the
west Thursday, and Thursday will probably be the warmest day
inland from the coast, with highs in the low 80s. Dewpoints
should be in the mid to upper 50s, so a touch muggy, but not
uncomfortable. Increased south/southwest breeze 10-15 mph on
Thursday afternoon. The approaching cold front won`t be able to
tap into much deep moisture, and not looking for much if any
rain with the front as it passes through Thursday night or early
Friday. Models have come into reasonable agreement on the
scarcity of moisture with the front and on the timing. Think
that we are looking at the potential for a tenth of an inch with
any of the showers, but little more, and many places will get
nothing.
Behind the cold front later Friday into Saturday, the airmass
looks much cooler and dry. Models have come into better
agreement on things being dry for the weekend. Going for high
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday, but that
could be optimistic. If the high pressure can build in fast
enough Saturday night, it could be a favorable night for frost.
Looks breezy behind the front especially Friday afternoon, with
gusts to 25 mph possible. Gusts 20-25 mph from the northwest
appear possible for Saturday afternoon as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions tonight, Monday, and Monday
night. MVFR/IFR possible tonight and Monday night for north
terminals in patchy fog. Light and variable winds.
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday to Thursday...IFR/LIFR patchy fog possible at terminals
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday overnight and early morning,
otherwise VFR. Light W/SW winds through Wednesday, before
increasing to around 10 kts Thursday from the SW.
Thursday Night and Friday...SW winds switching to the NW behind
a cold front, with gusts increasing to 20-25 kt. Possible
period of MVFR mainly Thursday night and Friday morning,
otherwise VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels tonight,
Monday, and Monday night.
SHORT TERM: Patchy fog over the waters Tuesday night to Thursday
morning. Below small craft in general, although NW winds Friday
night and Saturday morning could approach small craft levels,
with about a 40 percent chance of small craft criteria being
met.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...LaFlash/Foisy
Marine...LaFlash/Foisy

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion