Holbrook, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

296
FXUS61 KOKX 082323
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
723 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stays in control through at least Tuesday. An
offshore wave of low pressure may come close enough to impact
the area on Wednesday. High pressure settles in for the second
half of the week and into the weekend. A cold front likely
slides through Sunday night, followed by Canadian high pressure
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues to build in tonight with primarily
clear skies expected. This will allow for efficient radiational
cooling for the first half of the night. Then developing
offshore low pressure will lead to increasing E/NE winds from a
pressure gradient for the second half of the night. This will
hamper radiational cooling in areas east and south. Overall
expecting lows to be in the mid/low 50s across the southern
half/coastal parts of the area. Then lows may dip int the
mid/upper 40s for northern interior sections.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control on Tuesday, but weakens its
influence Tuesday night as it pushes more north, giving way to a
nearby coastal wave of low pressure. Dry conditions are
expected Tuesday. Tuesday morning will be mostly sunny with
cloud cover gradually increasing south to north through the
afternoon and into Tuesday night.
Then on Wednesday, showers are possible for southern and
eastern portions of the CWA, with the highest chances on eastern
Long Island. This is in response to the nearby wave of low
pressure. THis rainfall is expected to taper west to east
Wednesday night as high pressure builds back in from the west.
Cool weather persists through this period with highs in the
70s. Lows will be a bit warmer than whats expected tonight given
more cloud cover and wind, mainly 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large dome of high pressure will be in control for the second
half of the week and into the weekend. The high will then
weaken on Sunday with a cold front swinging through for the tail
end of the weekend, likely during Sunday night. At this time
little in terms of sensible weather is expected with the this
front, although there seems to be a good amount of spread at 500
mb with the global deterministic models. Stayed largely with
the NBM throughout the period, even for late Sunday into Sunday
night. Although slight chance or low end chance PoPs may be
warranted for Sunday night have held off including it for now.
So no changes in terms of sensible weather throughout the period
with this package. Overall near seasonable temperatures and
predominantly dry.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure prevails through the TAF period.
VFR.
Light SE winds early this evening, with weakening seas breezes,
become light NE to light and variable by late evening. Winds
become more easterly Tuesday morning and increase to near 15 kt
along the coast. Gusts also possible along the coast Tuesday
morning into the afternoon, 17 to 22 kt. Uncertain on frequency
of gusts, and may be more occasional.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
E to NE gusts late Tuesday morning into the late afternoon may
be more occasional, especially at KEWR and KTEB.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR. Chance of MVFR late at night at KISP and
KGON with showers.
Wednesday: Potential for MVFR in -SHRA, mainly east of NYC
terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is issued for the ocean waters Tuesday
through Wednesday due to building 5 to 6 ft seas. Through that time,
wind gusts likely stay under 25 kt, but isolated 25 kt gusts can not
be ruled out.
Sub-advisory conditions are expected for Thursday through Saturday
with mainly 3 to 4 ft seas on the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast
period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SE swells at around 8 seconds along with an increasing E wind wave
will result in a high rip current risk by Tuesday afternoon. The
high risk should continue into Wednesday with similar conditions in
place.
Minor coastal flood benchmarks will begin to be approached during
times of high tide beginning on Tuesday. Coastal flood statements
have been issued for the SW CT and So Westchester coastal zones for
the early afternoon high tide cycle, and the Nassau south shore bays
for the Tuesday evening cycle. It appears that water levels will
fall short of minor thresholds for So. Nassau Tuesday morning, but
could reach minor benchmarks for the evening cycle. There will be a
continued risk of minor coastal flood benchmarks being reached for
the late morning / early afternoon high tides on both Wednesday and
Thursday, and minor coastal flood benchmarks may be reached for
portions of Staten Island and So. Queens in subsequent cycles.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JE

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion